Neil Hughes
A new forecast calls for worldwide PC sales to grow just 2 percent this year, held back by demand for Apple's iPad and a tepid response to Windows 8.
Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee issued a note to investors on Monday provided to AppleInsider in which he said he foresees slower-than-expected growth. While most market research firms believe the PC market could grow as much as 9 percent in 2013, he thinks it will be much lower, thanks to a number of factors.
Among those reasons is the competitive threat of Apple's iPad, which now has a starting price of $329 with the entry-level iPad mini. Wu said Windows 8 hardware priced between $500 and $1,200 is "uncompetitive" compared to lower-priced options from Apple and even Google's Android.
Expected struggles in the PC market will also be driven by Apple's Mac lineup, Wu believes. He said Apple's "highly differentiated" computers will continue to eat away at PC marketshare, while Microsoft's Windows platform will also be hurt by low-cost device makers based in the Asia-Pacific region.
In fact, Wu believes Microsoft could see growth from its previous-generation Windows 7 operating system in 2013. He believes the more familiar look and feel of Windows 7 could appeal to some users and businesses who will be upgrading from Windows XP, which Microsoft plans to end support for this year.
As for Windows 8, Microsoft's latest PC operating system, Wu doesn't believe that adoption will be as fast as many other prognosticators have expected.
While consumers may be confused by Windows 8, as some others have projected, Wu said that even Microsoft's PC-making partners are unsure what to build that will appeal to consumers.
"The feedback we have gotten from supply chain sources is that there is great confusion, as there are too many form factors (PC notebooks, tablets, ultrabooks, and convertibles) and most do not know what to build and will actually sell," he said.
Going forward, Wu expects the PC to "become more of a niche." In that respect, he's in agreement with Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, who viewed the iPad as part of a transition to the post-PC era.
Wu sees PC refresh cycles lengthening to between 5 and 7 years, much longer than the 2-to-3-year cycles that have historically existed in the PC market. Taking their place will be mobile devices, which he expects will be upgraded ever 1 to 3 years.
"We see smartphones and tablets becoming the 'daily driver' while PCs are more like trucks for specialized tasks," he said.
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24 Comments
Dun-dun-dunnnnn . . .
Welcome to new market realities.
[quote name="AppleInsider" url="/t/155345/apples-ipad-expected-to-help-hold-2013-pc-growth-to-2#post_2255132"]Among those reasons is the competitive threat of Apple's iPad, which now has a starting price of $329 with the entry-level iPad mini. Wu said Windows 8 hardware priced between $500 and $1,200 is "uncompetitive" compared to lower-priced options from Apple and even Google's Android.[/quote] And, yet, sales of Apple's computers (which sell for more than $500 to 1200) have been growing faster than the industry as a whole (or, in the most recent period, dropping less than the industry as a whole). Even their iPad which sells for more than most of the competition is doing extremely well. When will these analysts figure out that it's not all about price? It's about value. People will pay a higher price if they feel that they're getting something for the extra money. THAT is why PC sales are suffering - not enough benefit to justify the investment.
When will these analysts figure out that it's not all about price? It's about value. People will pay a higher price if they feel that they're getting something for the extra money. THAT is why PC sales are suffering - not enough benefit to justify the investment.
Actually, I think you'll find that it's because people don't have a tablet.
I'm more likely to buy what I don't have, and if I buy a tablet, I'm either going to buy a cheap one (Kindle Fire) or the best (iPad).
Most homes have a PC and don't need a new one. Eventually the market will stabilize and sales of both PCs and tablets will enter the organic replacement/growth phase when homes all have tablets too. In the meantime we have millions of tablet sales, along with the not insignificant 350M PC sales.
I have to say I'm actually surprised that tablets have not reduced PC sales... which pretty much shows that tablets are not replacing many PC sales.
"held back by demand for Apple's iPad and a[B] tepid[/B] response to Windows 8.: ... Idk, puke is often pretty warm!
[quote name="realwarder" url="/t/155345/apples-ipad-expected-to-help-hold-2013-pc-growth-to-2#post_2255156"] Actually, I think you'll find that it's because people don't have a tablet. I'm more likely to buy what I don't have, and if I buy a tablet, I'm either going to buy a cheap one (Kindle Fire) or the best (iPad). Most homes have a PC and don't need a new one. Eventually the market will stabilize and sales of both PCs and tablets will enter the organic replacement/growth phase when homes all have tablets too. In the meantime we have millions of tablet sales, along with the not insignificant 350M PC sales. I have to say I'm actually surprised that tablets have not reduced PC sales... which pretty much shows that tablets are not replacing many PC sales. [/quote] I humbly disagree on your basic premise. Most folks I know with a PC had to replace it every few years as the cost of having a nerd fix it (software / virus / Norton screwed up etc. etc. etc.) was higher than he'd offer to 'build' them a new one and so guess what? Yes, another PC sale! Now they all say "screw this" put the PC on the curb on trash day and get an iPad. In other words the iPad is replacing many PCs not joining them. An iPad may last them what would have been several PC cycles (as explained above) so this PC down trend will accelerate from here on in ...