Apple's established 'staircase model' suggests 'iPhone 8' price could reach $1100

A new analysis details Apple's historical pricing trends with the iPhone, and predicts that the 256-gigabyte "iPhone 7s Plus" could reach a price as high as $1100, with the "iPhone 8" at that point or even higher.

Image credit Nodus and Gordon Kelly

Asymco's Horace Dediu has published a breakdown of new iPhone pricing that he calls the "staircase model," dating back to the original release. The graphs shows a "high degree of consistency of pattern" with the floor of the staircase a consistent $400, with the ceiling growing every three years by $100, now sitting at $950 for a 256GB iPhone 7 Plus.

Dediu notes that should historical trends for the last decade continue, the ceiling is due for another $100 jump this year, with the ceiling hitting $1100 for some model of the device — likely any "iPhone 7S Plus" and probably the "iPhone 8" as well.

There are changes in pattern, such as the iPhone SE, and the increase in storage to 256GB. However, the impact of a full-featured device like the rumored iPhone 8 would likely be one of those pattern-shifts in the upwards direction as well.

As a result of the staircase pricing, the average price of the phone stays mostly the same, minus effects of outlying models, like the iPhone SE and possibly the "iPhone 8."

"The iPhone can be seen as controllingthe $650 point, the Mac $1200, the iPod $200 and the iPad $450," writes Dediu. "Thispricing signals the product's value and the value of thebrand."

Speculation has emerged that the tech-loaded "iPhone 8" would likely retail for $1000 or more, with some discussions centering around a $1200 price point.

57 Comments

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rogifan_new 9 Years · 4297 comments

About 7 years ago

Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.

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dachar 11 Years · 330 comments

The chart certainly shows what incredible value the SE 64 is against earlier models of the same size. It is not all increasing prices.

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mattrogers_2 7 Years · 10 comments

How much of this is to adjust for inflation? It has been 10 years now. $650 in 2007 is $786 in 2017 dollars. The value proposition has gotten far better with time as the phones have only increased in quality and greater features, while the base price stayed the same....FOR TEN YEARS.

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muthuk_vanalingam 8 Years · 1372 comments

rogifan_new said:

Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.

What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?

StrangeDays 8 Years · 12987 comments

rogifan_new said:

Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.

Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead.