Malcolm Owen
Apple's 2019 iPhones are off to a strong start in terms of sales in the United States, analysts at UBS claim, but the firm's data suggests customers may have to wait longer to get hold of the iPhone 11 or iPhone 11 Pro models than customers did for the 2018 releases.
After observing a "general bias" to the downside for iPhone sales from other analysts, the investor note from UBS seen by AppleInsider indicates the data does "not suggest the type of short-falls in sales that we saw last year." UBS reckons it is due to "more modest expectations from Apple" and its supply chain for 2019.
On the subject of availability, using data from the first five days after launch suggests there are longer wait times for the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro than the iPhone XR and iPhone XS, with supply for the iPhone 11 "much more modest" despite having a lower average selling price versus the iPhone XR.
In the first five days, availability in the US for the 2019 models is longer compared to last year, with iPhone 11 availability better in Japan and the United Kingdom relative to the US, while the iPhone 11 Pro's availability somewhat longer in the US, UK, and Hong Kong than the iPhone 11.
After a visit to 38 companies in Asia last week, UBS has increased its smartphone market estimate for the full-year 2019 from being down 7% to down 5%. For iPhones, procurement for new models is apparently tracking flat, at -12% year-on-year for the second half of 2019, which could imply 60 to 68 million units coming from the supply chain.
UBS continues to model the second half of 2019's iPhone shipments down 5.3%, slightly pessimistic compared to the Wall Street consensus of down 4.4%. While supply chain build plans "could be biased lower" than UBS' original estimate, the firm believes it isn't something that will trigger investors to sell their shares "given what should be a big 2020 on a number of fronts."
The current UBS valuation of Apple is "Buy" with a price target of $235.
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17 Comments
Traded my XS in for an 11 Pro this week and the reservation was worthless. The store was such a mess it made the worst DMV experience look like a model of efficiency. It was also more than obvious that the floor staff were poorly trained and supervised and thrown to the wolves.
If this is an example of Apple retail in 2019, it is in trouble. This store (Saddle Creek) is one of the oldest and was one of the first reimagined a couple of years back. It was once a model of efficiency and well trained staff. That was not on display this week.
I had the opposite experience. I picked up my new 11 Pro Max on Friday at the Deer Park Apple Store via reservation and was out of the store in 30 minutes (including wait time). Everybody in line seemed happy.
My SO needed a new iPhone so we went last week to Apple's flagship store in San Francisco to look at them. The Pro models are just stunning. She decided with what I call the "Tactical Green" model, both our favorites. The store was packed with people. I'm still quite happy with my iPhone X but I'll tell ya, it was tempting for me. I might still wait for the 2020 model next year as there is nothing really wrong with what I have.
I spoke to a corporate Verizon store two days ago. They said iPhone 11 is in stock and there’s not much demand for it. iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max sold about 100 units combined since its release and they were out of stock.