Foxconn telling iPhone assembly staff to stay home because of coronavirus

Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

radarthekat said:

Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

The first Coronavirus infection was early December, with recoveries taking 30+ days. I am hoping for the same, but I don't think your math quite works out. We'll see.

Mike Wuerthele said:

radarthekat said:

Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

The first Coronavirus infection was early December, with recoveries taking 30+ days. I am hoping for the same, but I don't think your math quite works out. We'll see.

Recent data suggesting much shorter recovery duration both in China as well as other Asia countries. There is now commonly shared and known medications (Arbidol and another HIV drug) which seems effective to cure for most cases (those without pre-existing conditions that complicate treatment).

radarthekat said:

Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

So far, only 1,500 people are listed as recovered with 600+ people listed as dead. With the official numbers of over 30,000 sick, the percentage of recovered is about 5%. That's not an encouraging number. The recent case with the Chinese ophthalmologist who was the first to sound the alarm about this virus back in late December/early January, who then contracted the virus in early January and died yesterday points to the fact that those who die may hang onto their lives for up to a month. We won't know if the bulk of the infected are going to recover or to die yet. There hasn't been enough time yet to tell which way their illness is progressing. The fact that the Chinese government is mum on the fate of most of the infected tells me that they are hiding what is really going on.

sirozha said:

radarthekat said:

Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

So far, only 1,500 people are listed as recovered with 600+ people listed as dead. With the official numbers of over 30,000 sick, the percentage of recovered is about 5%. That's not an encouraging number. The recent case with the Chinese ophthalmologist who was the first to sound the alarm about this virus back in late December/early January, who then contracted the virus in early January and died yesterday points to the fact that those who die may hang onto their lives for up to a month. We won't know if the bulk of the infected are going to recover or to die yet. There hasn't been enough time yet to tell which way their illness is progressing. The fact that the Chinese government is mum on the fate of most of the infected tells me that they are hiding what is really going on.

1) You need to consider what recovered means here. With any virus or disease they do not classify someone as recovered until there the statically likely is so incredibly low that they feel there is absolutely no residual effects and no way that the it could reflate and infect anyone. With a nascent virus that we know so little about they are keeping people under observation, doing considerably more testing, and taking additional precautions when dealing with them (ii.e.: not just wearing gloves) to help make the best of not just the current case but all future cases. I'd say it's more important to look at the likelihood of death from this virus, and of the people that are dying their health, habits, and age. This is how learn about and get ahead of these issues.

2) They might be hiding something—there's certainly a long history of that—but they are certainly being more transparent than they were with SARS. I seem to recall reading that The Who and CDC have commanded China for their efforts with 2019-nCoV.