Ming-Chi Kuo thinks he knows why the iPhone 14 may launch early

Responding to earlier reports, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has chimed in on why he thinks that the iPhone 14 will launch earlier in the year than the iPhone 13 did, based on clues from Apple's last earnings call.

As Apple is expected to hold its iPhone 14 presentation on September 7, 2022, long-standing analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the shipping date will be sooner than usual.

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The iPhone 14 announcement/shipping date may be earlier than iPhone 13/12, which could be one of the reasons why Apple offered a positive outlook for 3Q22 from the last earnings call. https://t.co/lyg4dFf4Lv
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) August 18, 2022

Kuo does not appear to be basing his prediction on any information from his usual supply chain sources. More than solely extrapolating from Apple's positive 3Q22 outlook, however, he thinks there are other pressures that will mean an early release benefits Apple.

"The global recession risk is still growing and unpredictable," he goes on to say, "so announcing/shipping the iPhone as soon as possible may minimize the impact of recession risk on demand."

Kuo doesn't specify how much sooner a release could be, but it is obviously dependent on the iPhone 14 production cycle. Separately, Apple has reportedly had production quality problems that have meant it's had to change iPhone 14 suppliers.

7 Comments

williamh 13 Years · 1048 comments

About 2 years ago

Announcing/shipping a week earlier will reduce recession risk sufficiently to counter the added risk of rushing the announcement? If the economy really goes to crap then this won't make any difference.

Obviously the new model is already in production, etc. but still . . . rushing something like this just increases the chance of something going awry.

heretakis 16 Years · 4 comments

Time to buy the iphone 13.

mike1 10 Years · 3437 comments

AppleInsider said:

Responding to earlier reports, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has chimed in on why he thinks that the iPhone 14 will launch earlier in the year than the iPhone 13 did, based on clues from Apple's last earnings call.

Amazingly brilliant insight. Ugh!
If iPhone 13 models shipped later than normal, due to supply chain issues that wreaked havoc everywhere, would shipping the newest models on the "normal" timeline be that much of a stretch?

heretakis said:

Time to buy the iphone 13.

No. The time to buy the 13 would be after the announcement, when any remaining inventory is being cleared out at a discount.

waveparticle 3 Years · 1497 comments

Kuo has a point. There are many CEOs and economists think recession could start in early 2023. Apple's new iPhone always sells more in the first quarter of launch. Apple maybe trying to place this window before recession starts.

jony0 12 Years · 380 comments

AppleInsider said:
[…] solely extrapolating from Apple's positive 3Q22 outlook, however, he thinks there are other pressures that will mean an early release benefits Apple.

Of course that won't add to the total sales, just add to CQ3 to the detriment of CQ4. However for fiscal yearly sales, this would pad a little extra to FY2022 to the detriment FY2023.