Apple playing chess, while others play checkers in march to $3 trillion

Analysts at investment firm Wedbush say Apple has fought back "against all odds" to once again be on the cusp of a $3 trillion market valuation — and $4 trillion is in sight.

Apple was the first company to ever reach $3 trillion. It did so in January 2022. Over the following 12 months, its valuation dropped to under $2 trillion.

It is about to hit that mark again. Potentially, it may do so today, June 28.

"We note that Apple... then ultimately navigated a myriad [sic] of China supply chain challenges along with a softer macro over the last 18 months in Rock of Gibraltar fashion," writes Wedbush in a note seen by AppleInsider. "[Thus] Cook and Cupertino find themselves back against all odds (from the bear view) on the doorstep of the $3 trillion market cap threshold this week."

Wedbush maintains that it has correctly analysed Apple's fortunes — in June 2023 it raised its stock target to $220 — and that "the Street has severely underestimated the massive installed base upgrade opportunity around iPhone 14."

"Apple [is] playing chess while others play checkers," continue the analysts. "In FY24 the Cupertino stalwart is on pace to approach $100 billion of annual services revenue growing double digits which is a jaw dropping trajectory vs. the roughly $50 billion+ of services revenue that Apple was delivering only in FY20."

"We believe Apple's fair valuation could be in the $3.5 trillion range," says Wedbush, "with a bull case $4 trillion valuation by FY25."

Part of the reason for Wedbush's growth prediction is a belief that the App Store for the new Apple Vision Pro is "another expansion of the App Store moat down the road." The company also believes that Apple now has a "mini super cycle iPhone 15 ahead with roughly 25% of Apple's golden customer base not upgrading their iPhones in over 4 years."

The forthcoming iPhone 15 range is also just part of a raft of products Apple is expected to release by the end of 2024.

At time of writing, Apple's stock market valuation is at $2.95 trillion.