William Gallagher
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that it is "unlikely" that there will be any updates to the iPad before the end of this year.
Recent rumors have claimed that a new iPad mini 7 could be released in the fall, but Ming-Chi Kuo has been saying no on that since at least January 2023.
Now in an unusually minimalist report, Kuo says that "New iPad models are unlikely before the year's end."
Kuo is often careful to distinguish between information he's learned from his sources within the supply chain, and just his own extrapolation based on his experience covering Apple. In this case, he does not say either, so gauging the accuracy of his report is hard.
Also in this case, it may then be possible that Kuo is basing this on the production cycles for other Apple products. Clearly September onwards is Apple's key iPhone period so it won't do anything to take the spotlight off that until at least October.
That is when other leakers have claimed that there will be an iPad Air update — although done via a press release rather than an event. However, October is also when Apple is rumored to release the next Macs.
Whether it's a prediction based on past performance, or direct information from industry sources, though, Kuo is one of the most consistently reliable sources on Apple device plans.
Christine McKee
AppleInsider Staff
Chip Loder
Malcolm Owen
5 Comments
A spec bump (M1 to M2) for the iPad Air isn't a "new iPad model" -- so this doesn't contradict the likelihood that iMac and iPad Air will both get the M2, via press release, in October.
The iMac jumping directly to M3 never made sense, and contradicted Apple's public statements about every product getting every generation of M silicon.
Gurman pretty much single-handedly engineered the "M3 in October" expectations. I've gotten John Gruber mixed up with Mark Gurman in the past. I think Gruber would be horrified!
No new iPads until there are new chips for them. Remember: entry level chips only because of power/thermal/cost considerations. And you can't have the Pro and Air on the same chip.
The iPad Pro will need to go from the M2 to the M3.
The iPad Air will need to go from the M1 to the M2.
The iPad will need to go from the smartphone chip to the M1 (as will the Apple TV).
As TSMC 3 is a new process, for the time being there is barely going to be enough capacity for the iPhones. Anything else will need to go to the MacBook Air and maybe the 13" MacBook Pro. Also, using 3nm chips on $500 iPads while your $4000 Macs remain on chips made on a 3 year old 5nm node is gauche. Might as well wave the white flag and shart shipping macOS on iPads at that point.
This is life at the leading edge. AMD won't be able to access TSMC 3 until 2025 because they don't want to get into a bidding war with Qualcomm, MediaTek, Nvidia and Intel (who needs it for their GPUs) over it. Intel? Same. Even though - despite rumors otherwise - their 7nm process actually is working fine, they are limiting capacity for financial reasons in order to save money to build maximum capacity for the 5nm and 3nm processes they are going to use in 2024 and 2025 (going back to using the tick-tock process of standing up nodes makes this possible from a technological standpoint but is WAY more expensive in upfront costs). So they have to cede desktop and workstation superiority to AMD for yet another year.
We expect nothing from Cook. What on earth do they spend their R&D budget on? This year we even don’t have any rumors .