Apple Watch may see a 15% year over year sales decline

As part of a larger post about future Apple Watch rumors, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is predicting that shipments of the wearable in 2023 will see a notable decline, year-over-year.

The post published on Tuesday afternoon mostly delves into the next few years of Apple Watch features and designs. However, Kuo drops a notable tidbit about Apple Watch shipment volumes.

Without context, Kuo says that "Apple Watch shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by approximately 15% YoY to 36-38 million units."

It's not clear where Kuo is getting his figures from, nor if he is referring to calendar year 2023 or Apple's fiscal year 2023 which ended on September 30. Apple's Wearables segment contains more than the Apple Watch, but it has been a continuing source of strength overall for the company, buoying products that took a hit in the quarter.

"The Apple Watch is a classic example of a product that succeeded through repositioning," Kuo writes. "However, based on current shipment momentum, it may need to be repositioned again if there's an unfortunate year-over-year decline again in 2024."

Kuo is referring to the heavy fashion-first mantra that the company had at the Apple Watch launch. At that launch, it invited fashion mavens to attend the presentation, and seeded Apple Watch units to celebrities before the shipment of the device.

While Apple did briefly discuss the health features of the watch at launch, the messaging changed fairly rapidly. The following year, and in every year since, Apple focused heavily on fitness for everyone.

Notably, the original gold Apple Watch that sold for $17,000 is no longer eligible for service, and is classified as "vintage" now. It was cut off from new watchOS support in watchOS 4.

26 Comments

mayfly 385 comments · 1 Year 🧟

About 1 year ago

Apple's problem is that everyone who wants an Apple Watch already has one. And their incremental changes aren't going to drive upgrade cycles. The Ultra was new and different, but the buy-in was a big deterrent for the mass market. Things like Micro-LED screens won't do it. A total rethink is what it will take. I can't think of anything the Apple Watch 9 offers that would even make me consider upgrading my 7 series.

cpsro 3226 comments · 14 Years ☠️

I'm finding the rapid, on-device voice recognition a very nice upgrade from last year.

briceio 8 comments · 3 Years 🧟

Problem is double imo: too many duplicate features with the iPhone + very bad battery life (relative). More specialized watches like the Scanwatch (health) or any Garmin (sport) do way better than the Apple Watch in finding this equilibrium.

williamh 1044 comments · 13 Years ☠️

I haven’t upgraded from the Watch 4 yet. A former Apple Watch wearing friend raves about her Garmin and the body battery feature is intriguing.

AppleZulu 2141 comments · 8 Years 🧟

mayfly said:

Apple's problem is that everyone who wants an Apple Watch already has one. And their incremental changes aren't going to drive upgrade cycles. The Ultra was new and different, but the buy-in was a big deterrent for the mass market. Things like Micro-LED screens won't do it. A total rethink is what it will take. I can't think of anything the Apple Watch 9 offers that would even make me consider upgrading my 7 series.

Oh, lort. The lament of incrementalism is so, so very tedious. Two years isn't the intended replacement cycle for a $400+ to $700+ watch. You are not the target audience for Series 9. The fact that you're still o.k. with your series 7 means they're doing it right.

Once again for the people in the cheap seats: Making incremental changes from one year to the next is the intentional pace for updates to all of Apple's product lines. They do not wish to raise the ire of someone who just dropped hundreds or thousands of dollars on a device by releasing a new model that renders the last one obsolete. Same thing goes for the model previous to last year. Making big leaps in feature sets from one year to the next not only makes recent customers unhappy, it also will add volatility in current year numbers, causing sales of new models to quickly drop off after they're introduced, as people decide earlier in the model-year cycle to wait to see what next year's dramatic update will bring.

The objective is to make incremental changes that accumulate over several years until they add up to a compelling argument for an upgrade.The target audience for series 9 among current watch owners is probably people wearing series 6 or even maybe 5 and earlier. Those folks will see enough that's new and interesting in a 9, while also feeling they got their money's worth out of the watch they bought a few years ago. That's the sweet spot, and you can be sure there are whole teams of folks at Apple whose job is to steer the pipeline toward that several year long rhythm.