Apple Vision Pro launch quantities rumored to be far tighter than previously estimated

Apple Vision Pro at Apple Park

While there are conflicting reports about exactly how many Apple Vision Pro units Apple will have available at launch, Ming-Chi Kuo thinks that the number will be smaller than previously predicted.

There has always been some question about how many launch units Apple has for anything at launch. The larger iPhone Pro models have always been tight, and notably Apple shipped less than 1,000 units of the cylindrical Mac Pro when it first shipped to make a year-end deadline.

A new post on X by Ming-Chi Kuo puts a number on how many units will be available on February 2. He predicts that there will be between 60,000 and 80,000 units available on launch day.

Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2 release. Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release.

Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro https://t.co/miktcS0aSK
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) January 11, 2024

In November, sources said to be within the Chinese supply chain predicted that there would be 400,000 units at launch. Other predictions have come in around that ballpark. Should Kuo's 80,000 units be correct, that would be a new low prediction.

The launch timing is also far earlier than typical for Apple when it gives a wide range of availability like "early 2024." The aforementioned Mac Pro launch was said to be by the end of that year, and Apple ultimately shipped a relative handful in the last days of the year to make the deadline.

In a post early on Tuesday, Kuo initially said that Apple did showcase the technology well at its introduction, but "left out more important information about the product's position and key applications."

Kuo postulated that hype for the headset should mean the Apple Vision Pro will sell out after pre-orders open or when it goes on sale, in turn lengthening shipping times.

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13 Comments

Kierkegaarden 180 comments · 1 Year

About 3 months ago

Why is he continuing to make comments like this? There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1. If he’s close, does he get a cookie?

As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.

twolf2919 112 comments · 2 Years

About 3 months ago

Kierkegaarden said:

Why is he continuing to make comments like this? There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1. If he’s close, does he get a cookie?

As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.

The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing. So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting. But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.

slow n easy 323 comments · 9 Years

About 3 months ago

twolf2919 said:

Kierkegaarden said:

Why is he continuing to make comments like this? There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1. If he’s close, does he get a cookie?

As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.

The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing. So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting. But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.

How would it not be verified? I'm pretty sure analysts will have a pretty good idea after it launches whether the real number is closer to 80,000 or whether it's closer to 400,000.

tht 5377 comments · 23 Years

About 3 months ago

slow n easy said:

twolf2919 said:

Kierkegaarden said:

Why is he continuing to make comments like this? There is no way that this will ever be verified, unless Apple announces pre-order numbers on 2/1. If he’s close, does he get a cookie?

As seems to be the case lately, Kuo Doesn’t Know™️.

The man seems to be jumping at straws to stay relevant around this new product.

The Vision Pro is clearly a new device category if one believes Apple's marketing. So *iff* it's a success, it should have its own category during Apple's financial reporting. But I doubt it will be successful from a financial perspective, so Apple might clump it into the "wearable" category to hide from investors its minuscule contribution.

How would it not be verified? I'm pretty sure analysts will have a pretty good idea after it launches whether the real number is closer to 80,000 or whether it's closer to 400,000.

This is actually the first I've heard of there being 400k units at launch. If there is a statement that is wrong, it's the 400k unit number at launch.

What we've heard, or I've heard, is that Sony can only make 1 million microOLED displays in 2024, which would equate to 500k VP units, and they could not ramp up to produce more. Apple is looking for a second source supplier for the displays, but if they didn't start doing that in early 2023, a second source supplier isn't contributing many units in 2024.

So, straight linear, or a constant production rate, gets you 42,000 units a month. We all assume Apple has been hoarding those displays for launch, so 60,000 to 80,000 VP units isn't a bad guess for launch availability.

It's going to be 2 years before Apple's VP production rate is going to be like the Macbook Pro, which are at about 8m to 10m units per year. 2 years is probably too early for that. Check that, if you assume a doubling per year in production rate, you'd need 4 years.

One thing to look for is for Apple to produce Vision Pro units at different sizes, as you know, people have different sized heads. And of course, a unit that starts at $2000 or so.