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Apple Vision Pro launch quantities rumored to be far tighter than previously estimated

Apple Vision Pro at Apple Park

While there are conflicting reports about exactly how many Apple Vision Pro units Apple will have available at launch, Ming-Chi Kuo thinks that the number will be smaller than previously predicted.

There has always been some question about how many launch units Apple has for anything at launch. The larger iPhone Pro models have always been tight, and notably Apple shipped less than 1,000 units of the cylindrical Mac Pro when it first shipped to make a year-end deadline.

A new post on X by Ming-Chi Kuo puts a number on how many units will be available on February 2. He predicts that there will be between 60,000 and 80,000 units available on launch day.

In November, sources said to be within the Chinese supply chain predicted that there would be 400,000 units at launch. Other predictions have come in around that ballpark. Should Kuo's 80,000 units be correct, that would be a new low prediction.

The launch timing is also far earlier than typical for Apple when it gives a wide range of availability like "early 2024." The aforementioned Mac Pro launch was said to be by the end of that year, and Apple ultimately shipped a relative handful in the last days of the year to make the deadline.

In a post early on Tuesday, Kuo initially said that Apple did showcase the technology well at its introduction, but "left out more important information about the product's position and key applications."

Kuo postulated that hype for the headset should mean the Apple Vision Pro will sell out after pre-orders open or when it goes on sale, in turn lengthening shipping times.