A quarter of Apple's revenue will come from Services by 2025

I think the article is incorrect in stating Apple has 2 billion active users - it has two billion active devices.  Big difference.

twolf2919 said:

I think the article is incorrect in stating Apple has 2 billion active users - it has two billion active devices.  Big difference.

Sure. What would you suggest as a more accurate measuring stick for number of users?

I do understand the difference. Some people like me have many Apple devices. But other households share Apple devices like HomePods, Apple TVs, and even iPads between family members. They’re definitely extrapolating from the one somewhat deterministic data point to one that is far less deterministic. They could have been more clear about their size being an estimate or approximation, but with such a large magnitude number it may be irrelevant to identifying the scope of the opportunity for growth. 

dewme said:

twolf2919 said:

I think the article is incorrect in stating Apple has 2 billion active users - it has two billion active devices.  Big difference.

Sure. What would you suggest as a more accurate measuring stick for number of users?

I do understand the difference. Some people like me have many Apple devices. But other households share Apple devices like HomePods, Apple TVs, and even iPads between family members. They’re definitely extrapolating from the one somewhat deterministic data point to one that is far less deterministic. They could have been more clear about their size being an estimate or approximation, but with such a large magnitude number it may be irrelevant to identifying the scope of the opportunity for growth. 

None of what you write is relevant.  There is no need to suggest a more accurate measure - the sentence written by the article's author would have been just as valid had they used the word 'devices' rather than 'users'.  But it would have been accurate.

Hmm. I pay for Apple one but I don’t love it the way I love Apple devices. More specifically:

TV+ —- love it, watch a lot
arcade — hate it, don’t use 
music — it’s fine
iCloud — if’s fine 
News — it’s fine
whatever else — fine.

If they could move Arcade and News into the “love it” category— and I think that should be feasible if they’d try — then Apple One would be in the same league as Apple devices. But I’m not holding my breath 

Tone down (but don't eliminate) stock buybacks for a few years while continuing small one penny annual dividend increases.  Build back the giant war chest of cash to pre-2018 levels ($200+ billion after you factor in outstanding debt).

Settle DoJ case, stock plummets.  Use war chest of cash to buy back and retire shares at the discounted price.

1 year afterwards everything is fine as people realize opening up the platform to other stores and all that is actually good for the larger business and Apple is making more money than ever.