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A quarter of Apple's revenue will come from Services by 2025

Apple Services are bundled in various tiers of Apple One

New research predicts that the success of the Apple One bundle will lead to Services accounting for more of Apple's revenue than any other category bar the iPhone.

While analysts are concentrating on iPhone demand declining, and regulatory pressures on Apple only increasing, Counterpoint Research sees a strong future for Apple Services. Specifically, its predictions include Services accounting for 25% of Apple's total revenue by 2025.

That would mean Services growing to over $100 billion in revenue annually for the first time. Counterpoint also expects that Apple's overall revenue will have grown to $400 billion annually — despite regulatory issues.

This is because legal and regulatory concerns are likely to take many years to complete, and in the meantime Apple's growing iPhone user base is increasing the market for Services.

"We know there is risk, but it is early stages right now," said Counterpoint research director Jeff Fieldhack in a statement. "So, we are not expecting any impact to monetization of the iPhone installed base, at least not in the medium term."

Bar chart showing Apple's revenue share by category from 2015 to 2025F, with increasing Services and iPhone proportions.
How Apple Services revenue is growing into a quarter of Apple's earnings

Describing Apple's two billion active users as having created a flywheel effect, Counterpoint says that Services such as Apple Music, AppleCare+, and the App Store have seen commensurate growth. Its analysts say that by 2025, the single greatest contributor to Services revenue will be the Apple One bundle.

Counterpoint does also say that Apple One began in 2023, though, when actually it launched in late 2020. The analysts may instead have been referring to when the price of Apple One was raised in November 2023.