Apple's Q2 2024 earnings results may have some drama — what to expect

Apple CEO Tim Cook

Apple will be issuing its second-quarter results on May 2, with the figures anticipated to be released at around 4:30 p.m. EDT that evening. Not long after, at 5 p.m. EDT, Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri will be explaining the finer details of the results as part of its usual call with analysts.

Ahead of the financial results release, analysts have offered their own estimates of what Apple will declare, passing comment on what happened in the quarter and what the company faces in the future.

What Apple reported in the year-ago quarter

The year-ago quarter, Q2 2023, will be what Apple's Q2 2024 period will be directly compared against, in a year-on-year comparison.

In Q2 2023, Apple reported $94.3 billion in revenue, as well as an EPS of $1.52.

The iPhone brought in $51.3 billion, iPad managed $6.7 billion, and Mac had dipped down to $7.2 billion. Wearables, Home, and Accessories reached $8.76 billion, and Services was reported at $20.9 billion.

What happened in Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2024

In early February, the Apple Vision Pro became available to purchase. Customers were able to finally try out and buy the spatial computing headset.

Despite a promising launch, the relatively small sales of the Apple Vision Pro when compared to things like the iPhone means it won't make much of a meaningful impact on the results. Even so, analysts will want to know more about how it fared.

The period also saw Apple bring out updates to the M3 Apple Silicon lineup, specifically to the MacBook Air range.

Analysts will also want Apple's opinions on other things that happened in the period that could affect the company's position. For example, antitrust lawsuits against the iPhone maker, as well as Europe bringing the Digital Markets Act into force.

What Wall Street thinks about Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2024

As of April 22, the Yahoo Finance consensus of analysts puts Apple at earning an average of $84.4 billion, with a low estimate of $82.32 billion and a high estimate of $86.15 billion. This is based on the opinions of 24 analysts, and represents a year-on-year sales reduction of 5.1 percent.

Based on 27 analysts, the earnings per share estimate is at an average of $1.41, with the range between $1.32 and $1.45.

By comparison, the same consensus forecast an average of $92.94 billion for Q2 2023, with an EPS of around $1.43. In reality, Apple managed $94.8 billion and $1.52 respectively.

That same consensus reckoned Apple would make $94 billion in Q2 2022, with an EPS of $1.43. At the time, Apple reported $97.3 billion in revenue and a $1.52 EPS.

On April 29, Zacks Equity Research said its consensus expected quarterly earnings per share of $1.51, down 0.7% year-on-year. The revenue is forecast to be $89.99 billion, dropping 5.1% year-on-year.

Individual analysts on Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2024

JP Morgan

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider on April 30, JP Morgan expects $89.1 billion in revenue, which is "modestly below" its own consensus measure of $90.3 billion. The gross margin is expected to beat consensus at 46.8%, with an EPS of $1.49.

Citing cyclical challenges, pressured consumer spending, and China headwinds, JP Morgan thinks investors will try to "size the magnitude of downside risks." This could be a positive to savvy investors "if earnings downgrades are considered to be modest and better-than-feared."

Beyond Q2, the Q3 results are expected to be a "more significant miss to revenues."

TD Cowen

A note from April 29 offers year-on-year expectations for the quarter of a 5% downswing in revenue. Expecting a report of in-line results, the analysts say that iPhone has tough year-on-year comparisons, with segment revenue at about $38.4 billion.

Mac sales are "soft" due to consumer trends while iPad is set to see its year-on-year trends "stabilize" thanks to some enterprise exposure. That and new iPad models are thought to be on the way.

Services will still be strong, and will partially offset negative trends in the products business.

Wedbush

In an April 30 note, Wedbush forecasts Apple to report $94.8 billion in revenue, with an EPS of $1.52. With softer iPhone sales in China expected for the quarter, revenue is anticipated to "decline modestly" year-on year.

The "good news" is that Webush believes pent-up iPhone demand and an AI-driven iPhone 16 will help Apple grow in China later in 2024. It expects Cook's tone on the call to be cautiously optimistic, but there probably won't be "any fireworks" for the iPhone in Q3.

Services remains the "Rock of Gibraltar for Apple," with it showing continued strength and growth in the period, potentially showing low to mid-teen growth. After Cook mentioned AI and future announcements throughout the year, Wedbush feels Apple will use more generative AI in iPhone 16, starting a "new frontier of growth" for the company.

AppleInsider will add more analyst predictions as predictions roll in ahead of the financial results.