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Analysis: Apple Vision Pro sells well, but needs more content faster

Apple Vision Pro features stunning immersive environments and content.

The Apple Vision Pro is often referred to as a "flop" in media reports, but by the end of 2024, it will have sold around 500,000 units.

For context, that Wall Street estimate matches almost exactly the money Apple made from the iPhone in 2008, its first full calendar year of sales. While 500,000 units seems small compared to current iPhone or Mac sales, it's impressive for a first, albeit expensive, foray into VR.

In terms of gross revenue, the Apple Vision Pro is projected to bring in as much in its first 11 months as the proposed cost of a new state-of-the-art sports stadium currently being built in Las Vegas. For its first five months, the Apple Vision Pro was only available to purchase in the US.

Across June of 2024, Apple expanded sales to Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and the UK. In November, it debuted in South Korea and the UAE.

While the Apple Vision Pro sells reasonably well for a AR/VR device, its high retail price of $3,500 prevents it from finding a more mainstream audience. The Meta Quest 3, a gaming-focused competing headset, starts at $399 - and sales are in the millions.

Graph showing projected increase in Apple Vision Pro sales from January to November 2024, reaching 500,000 units. Sales of the Apple Vision Pro headset over the past year, based on data from The Information.

Apple's approach will generate some $1.75 billion in revenue, ahead of its first anniversary in February.

More content on the way

Apple has made some effort to bring more content to its VR headset in recent months. Recently it debuted a new virtual concert series with spatial audio called "Concert for One" that featured The Weeknd.

UK recording artist RAYE will star in the second installment of the series. In October, the company released a 16-minute submarine drama, Submerged, also shot in immersive video and spatial audio.

Games and other software have also been rolling out slowly to the Apple Vision Pro, such as the fantasy strategy sim "The Elder Scrolls: Castles." Disney+ contributed a new immersive environment, "Iceland," for the headset.

Early adopters of the Apple Vision Pro have expressed some frustration with the slow rollout of content, but Apple and Blackmagic Design have started using the latter company's 8K immersive video cameras at sporting events and other locations, suggesting more virtual experiences are on the way.

So far, Apple has made its own produced content available for free to maintain enthusiasm for the product and its potential. Nearly a year into it, however, more third-party software and immersive media content need to be produced to keep the Apple Vision Pro viable for the long term.



22 Comments

Luis.A.Masanti 1 Year · 73 comments

I do not know why so many journalist, ‘analysts,’ bloggers… are unable to make themselves our of they anxiety… and think that Apple is stupid… As for Vision Pro… this all happened before. In 2007, when Apple released the first iPhone 3G —well, maybe, some ‘analysts’ were still in indergarten—, Apple said that ‘We expect to have —I do not remember exactly— 1% or something similar by the end of 2008.’ Then ‘analysts’ were speculating if they must calculate the ‘year’ from June 07 to June 08… or to dec 08… all just to fill pages of words. Where is Apple iPhone now? #1 in the US market, going up and down from #1 to #3 in global markets —but with other cellphone makers selling mostly cheaper ones—. And the AppStore did not came out until 2008! So… obviously that VisionPro needs more content… but most probably Apple already knows that. (And, by example, is making a soccer field ready for 3D transmisións!)

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twolf2919 3 Years · 149 comments

When I read this sentence: “

 For context, that 
Wall Street estimate
 matches almost exactly the money Apple made from the 
iPhone
 in 2008” I was convinced that a lot more iPhones sold the first year than Vision Pro - and, sure enough, google it and the result points to nearly 2 million iPhone sales the first year.  But then I read the above more carefully, and it actually talks about MONEY made on AVP vs iPhone.  While maybe true, I find this highly deceptive: for one, the author never gives figures on MONEY - only on units sold.  For another, the success of a product isn’t - at least initially - about money made, but about adoption/growth!  With 2 million sold in the first year and a unit growth curve that’s admirable, third party developers had ample reason to develop apps for it.  With 500,000 sales for AVP the same cannot be said.

1 Like · 0 Dislikes
chasm 11 Years · 3641 comments

twolf2919 said:
While maybe true, I find this highly deceptive: for one, the author never gives figures on MONEY - only on units sold.  For another, the success of a product isn’t - at least initially - about money made, but about adoption/growth!  With 2 million sold in the first year and a unit growth curve that’s admirable, third party developers had ample reason to develop apps for it.  With 500,000 sales for AVP the same cannot be said.

Yes, you have to actually read the sentences to determine what they are about. You seem surprised that this would be the case, whereas it was perfectly clear to me.


I agree that adoption/growth is what's important in the long term, but the Apple Vision Pro has only been out for 10 months. You will have to wait at least another year-plus before you (or AppleInsider) can comment on adoption/growth. Indeed, the POINT of the article seems to be that IF Apple and third parties can provide more content and apps for the Apple Vision Pro, it has a good shot at seeing more adoption/growth -- but if it doesn't, then it doesn't stand much chance of that.

Gotta read the whole thing before commenting to avoid looking dumb! So unfair!! :lol:

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tht 24 Years · 5676 comments

AppleInsider said: ...

While 500,000 units seems small compared to current iPhone or Mac sales, it's impressive for a first, albeit expensive, foray into VR.

The Apple media knows that 500k unit sales for the AVP was the upper limit because they know that Sony can only make about 1m microOLED displays in 2024. The AVP uses two, therefore Apple can only sell 400k to 500k units the first year. This line of thinking hasn't changed in almost 2 years now, when the Information (I think this was the source) revealed how many microOLED displays they could make.

If Sony can make more microOLED displays, they would be cheaper to Apple, and the AVP could be priced cheaper and therefore sell more. It's basic economics and marketing. Apple targeted the $3500 price point for a pretty obvious set of reasons.

AppleInsider said: Graph showing projected increase in Apple Vision Pro sales from January to November 2024, reaching 500,000 units.
Sales of the Apple Vision Pro headset over the past year, based on data from The Information.

There are only 3 points in this plot. With a nice round 500k number for November, I wonder what type of survey data the Information is using here? Direct leak from an Apple VP? A mole inside Sony? A mole inside the lens maker?

While the Apple Vision Pro sells reasonably well for a AR/VR device, its high retail price of $3,500 prevents it from finding a more mainstream audience. The Meta Quest 3, a gaming-focused competing headset, starts at $399 - and sales are in the millions.

Uh, if Meta sells 5m units per year of the Meta Quests devices with an ASP of $400, that's $2b per year in revenue. Wouldn't you know it, Apple's 500k unit sales of the AVP at $3500 ASP is $1.75b per year. Guess who is doing better here? Apple!

Meta loses about $1000 for every $400 Meta Quest headset they sell. It's just craziness. If there was a thing the DOJ should be investigating, this is one of those. Meta, by subsidizing the sales of their VR hardware has effectively nuked any kind of VR hardware competition they could have, as nobody else has a sugardaddy set of businesses to continually to funnel money to, while any independent VR company will find it impossible to compete on price.

Apple obviously never competes on price. They always go for "value" for high prices.

chasm said:
I agree that adoption/growth is what's important in the long term, but the Apple Vision Pro has only been out for 10 months. You will have to wait at least another year-plus before you (or AppleInsider) can comment on adoption/growth. Indeed, the POINT of the article seems to be that IF Apple and third parties can provide more content and apps for the Apple Vision Pro, it has a good shot at seeing more adoption/growth -- but if it doesn't, then it doesn't stand much chance of that.

Yup, it's a long game. 

The media discussion always gets it backwards imo. Developers never set the virtuous cycle started. It's always the OEM who must provide the initial sales trajectory, with the right features to get customers to buy. When there is a market of users who are willing to pay for apps, the virtuous cycle can start, where availability of 3rd party apps can drive device sales. First and foremost, Apple has to come up with a set of features, price, workflows to get people to buy.

It's pretty clear it is not possible to make an AVP for $1000, and ostensible consumer price, and it's a multiyear waiting game for the microOLEDs, lens, and sensors to come in price. The weight also has to come down by half. That has to be a big priority. As it stands, the AVP is a niche device waiting on technology to cone down in price.

1 Like · 0 Dislikes
Marvin 19 Years · 15361 comments

twolf2919 said:
When I read this sentence: “ For context, that Wall Street estimate matches almost exactly the money Apple made from the iPhone in 2008” I was convinced that a lot more iPhones sold the first year than Vision Pro - and, sure enough, google it and the result points to nearly 2 million iPhone sales the first year.  But then I read the above more carefully, and it actually talks about MONEY made on AVP vs iPhone.  While maybe true, I find this highly deceptive: for one, the author never gives figures on MONEY - only on units sold.  For another, the success of a product isn’t - at least initially - about money made, but about adoption/growth!  With 2 million sold in the first year and a unit growth curve that’s admirable, third party developers had ample reason to develop apps for it.  With 500,000 sales for AVP the same cannot be said.

The iPhone sold 4 million units in the first 6 months and 6 million in the first year:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-macworld-iphone-idUSN1551882120080116/

This was announced at WWDC 2008:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_X5xOI_qu9I&t=5010s

(Sam Altman of OpenAI showed off an app early in this video)

The iPhone launch price was $499 (fully subsidized).

In their 2008 annual report in November, Apple reported 11.6m units:

https://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/f4e66939-3f5e-4751-8206-ae4c372faf6b.pdf

They reported iPhone 'net sales' as $1.8b, which is unusual as this works out to $155 per iPhone but maybe to do with how it was paid for via the carriers and initial revenue sharing.

In 2009, the unit sales were 20.7m with net sales of $6.7b, which is $323 per iPhone.

Today the lowest iPhone is $429 and highest $1599.
The most expensive iPhone is nearly $2000 less than the lowest priced Apple Vision Pro.

The year 1 revenue of the iPhone was 6m x $499 (+ carrier monthly fees) = $3b+.

If the AVP were to follow a similar unit sales trajectory to the iPhone, it would need to sell 1.5m units in year 2. This would be unlikely if it retains a $3500 entry price point. If it can reach a sub-$2000 price point, this is perfectly feasible. I think they can sell 3m units/year at $1999 ($6b revenue) and 5m units at $1499 ($7.5b revenue).

This unit sales estimate of 0.5m units in a year is probably overly high, this was how many units Apple produced before cutting back on production due to unsold supply. This year's wearables revenue was reported in November as $37b, down from $39b in 2023 and $41b in 2022, AVP revenue would have propped this up if it was near the sales estimate:

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/c87043b9-5d89-4717-9f49-c4f9663d0061.pdf

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