Two MacBook Pro models getting mini LED in 2021, MacBook Air in 2022 says Kuo

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that as part of Apple's mini LED push, the company will release a pair of new MacBook Pro models in 2021 with the technology — and a "more affordable" MacBook Air in 2022.

In a note to investors, seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo is refining his predictions for Apple's use of mini LED technology in the Mac. Specifically, he predicts that the long-rumored 14-inch MacBook Pro with a redesigned chassis will arrive in 2021 alongside another model. Perhaps more notably, Kuo is also expecting a new and "more affordable" MacBook Air in 2022 — but he didn't comment on the possibility of an enclosure redesign of that model.

Mini LED is, as the name suggests, a very small LED component. While current LEDs are used for backlighting systems, they typically rely on a small number of LEDs lighting up a larger area. Mini LED changes that by allowing more of them to be installed throughout the backlight layer.

The result is a backlight that is extremely evenly lit and could offer higher levels of contrast by dimming darker areas of the screen. This could allow for extremely high contrast displays to be created while still relying on the relatively mature and cost-effective LCD technology rather than switching to the expensive OLED.

Kuo believes that while mini LED panels are more expensive, it won't increase the cost of products that implement the technology. The analyst says that "the use of Apple Silicon can offset the increased cost of using mini LED panels."

Apple generally sticks with a form-factor for between four and four and a half years. The existing MacBook Pro form factor shipped in late 2016 and is still in use with the existing 13-inch Apple Silicon MacBook Pro. The previous chassis debuted with the 2012 Retina MacBook Pro and remained in service until the arrival of the 2016 refresh.

In September 2019, Kuo proposed Apple would produce high-end models of the iPad Pro, and MacBook Pro that uses Mini LED screens produced by LG Display. At the time, Kuo speculated the models would launch in late 2020 or early 2021.

A follow-up note to investors in March 2020 reiterated the potential use of Mini LED sometime in 2020 and said that three iPad models using the technology were coming, along with a refreshed 27-inch iMac Pro, an updated 16-inch MacBook Pro, and a 14.1-inch Mini LED MacBook Pro replacing the 13-inch model.

Wednesday's report is Kuo's first suggesting a new, lower-cost MacBook Air is coming in 2022.

Additionally, in Wednesday's note, Kuo believes that MacBook Air and MacBook Pro shipments will "grow significantly" and double within three years to around 30 million units per year. Factors leading to the increase include Apple Silicon and the long-rumored redesign of the model.

Kuo also predicts Apple to launch two to three new chargers in 2021, potentially expanding fast-charging tech for its mobile device lineup.

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22 Comments

MplsP

said about 3 years ago

We keep hearing about mini led - when are we actually going to see it?

I wonder how the economics of Apple Silicon work - nominally, the chips could be cheaper than intel chips, but apple also has to foot the entire bill for R&D as well as the costs of ramping up production. Those costs exist with intel, too, but they’re distributed over intel’s entire customer base.

Since they control the entire design, Apple may also be able to optimize integration with other components leading to easier and cheaper system board design/production.

I’m excited about the future of Apple Si. There’s a few hiccups, but the reviews are quite positive and impressive. I’ll be getting a new laptop in the next year or two and looking forward to an M1 MacBook Pro!

seankill

said about 3 years ago

MplsP said:

We keep hearing about mini led - when are we actually going to see it?

I wonder how the economics of Apple Silicon work - nominally, the chips could be cheaper than intel chips, but apple also has to foot the entire bill for R&D as well as the costs of ramping up production. Those costs exist with intel, too, but they’re distributed over intel’s entire customer base.

Since they control the entire design, Apple may also be able to optimize integration with other components leading to easier and cheaper system board design/production.
I’m excited about the future of Apple Si. There’s a few hiccups, but the reviews are quite positive and impressive. I’ll be getting a new laptop in the next year or two and looking forward to an M1 MacBook Pro!

I see where you are coming from but you fail to acknowledge that those R&D and some of those production costs are also distributed on the iPhone & iPads.

Overall, its definitely cheaper, look at the Mac Mini price if you aren't sure. Since when does Apple lower prices while hurting their margins? The removal of the power brick (of which they NEVER included anything beyond 5W to boost margins) from iPhones comes to mind. That was purely a margin boost.

JMohan

said about 3 years ago

Hello

Will there be a significant price increase to the MacBook Pro 14” with Apple Silicon, or there won’t be any price escalation when compared with the MacBook Pro 13” with M1 chip.

This is creating a lot of confusion, whether I should buy M1 or wait for another year to fall in

Any suggestion will be of very valuable advice to me in my decision to go for it or wait ... for 2 years I have been waiting with the speculation of Apple Silicon, but when it finally came I am so confused n in dilemma.

Regards - JMohan

MplsP

said about 3 years ago

JMohan said:

Hello

Will there be a significant price increase to the MacBook Pro 14” with Apple Silicon, or there won’t be any price escalation when compared with the MacBook Pro 13” with M1 chip.
This is creating a lot of confusion, whether I should buy M1 or wait for another year to fall in

Any suggestion will be of very valuable advice to me in my decision to go for it or wait ... for 2 years I have been waiting with the speculation of Apple Silicon, but when it finally came I am so confused n in dilemma.

Regards - JMohan

Well, you’re asking a question that no one (except Apple) knows the answer to. We don’t even know for sure if there will be a 14” device since this is just a rumor.

The best information would be from history - Apple typically increases the specs while keeping the price the same and the M1 Air was introduced at the same price as the previous model. I can’t remember how Apple priced the 16” MBP relative to the 15”, but that would probably be a good indicator.

rcfa

said about 3 years ago

MplsP said:

We keep hearing about mini led - when are we actually going to see it?

I wonder how the economics of Apple Silicon work - nominally, the chips could be cheaper than intel chips, but apple also has to foot the entire bill for R&D as well as the costs of ramping up production. Those costs exist with intel, too, but they’re distributed over intel’s entire customer base.

Since they control the entire design, Apple may also be able to optimize integration with other components leading to easier and cheaper system board design/production.
I’m excited about the future of Apple Si. There’s a few hiccups, but the reviews are quite positive and impressive. I’ll be getting a new laptop in the next year or two and looking forward to an M1 MacBook Pro!

Apple only needs to shoulder the chips’ designs, something they already do for iOS devices, the modular way Apple designs its SoCs means the incremental R&D for the Mac chip is rather small. Per unit costs should be significantly lower than intel chips, so I expect either increased profit margins, aggressive pricing, or the addition of expensive high-end technologies the competition can’t match at a reasonable price point, or a combination of these things at various levels of the line up. e.g. aggressive pricing at the entry level, increased margins at the mid-range, killer-tech at the high-end.

The really expensive aspects of making chips, i.e. processes development, manufacturing, etc. are carried by TSMC, not Apple, and distributed across their full range of customers, incl. AMD and others.

It will be interesting to see if Apple, when the inevitable physical boundaries of shrinking structures are reached, will opt to establish its own chip plants to have full control, or if the technology will become sufficiently commoditized that Apple will farm out chip manufacturing to a variety highly competitive companies to further squeeze costs, as they do now with assembly.