Slash LaneDespite slower than expected iPod sales during the better part of its fourth fiscal quarter, Apple Computer is still likely to beat Wall Street's consensus estimates due to strong Mac sales, says one analyst.
Similarly, he expects the Cupertino, Calif.-based Mac maker to guide in line with Street exceptions of 77 cents earnings-per-share on revenues of $6.46 billion for its first fiscal quarter of 2007.
"Current Street consensus revenue implies 39 percent quarterly growth [for the fourth fiscal quarter], which we believe is conservative given last year Apple grew revenue 56 percent quarter-to-quarter in the December quarter," Munster wrote in a research note.
The analyst said he has analyzed the first two months of NPD data (July & August) for the fourth quarter and found that it suggests iPod unit sales will come in around 7.4 million units.
"When the third month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first two months of data, given data for the month of September will include data related to the new iPods that are now shipping," he explained. "Given the new iPods that were just recently announced, we believe iPod units will end the quarter closer to Street expectations, but still shy of 8.6m."
As a result, the analyst lowered his iPod estimate from 8.6 million to 8.2 million for the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Munster expects fourth quarter Mac sales will slightly exceed Street consensus of 1.47 million units. "We recently did channel checks with 15 U.S. Apple specialist store resellers, which suggested Mac sales were above expectations in the September quarter," he told clients. "Specifically, more than 50 percent of specialist stores in our sample said that Mac sales for the quarter exceeded expectations and 73 percent indicated that they sold more MacBooks than expected."
Moreover, Munster said, Mac NPD data for the quarter implies strong yearly growth, driven by solid back-to-school spending.
"Given the positive nature of our checks and NPD data, we are slightly raising our September quarter Mac unit estimate to 1.49 million from 1.44 million," he added.
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9 Comments
Nice to be first.
It is also nice to hear the so called experts confirm what I said about two weeks ago. MacBooks are selling very well. When one has to wait in line in the middle of the afternoon at an Apple Store and those in front of you are not buying just software and iPods, then you know it is time to buy more Apple Stock.
I doubt the numbers on the iPods. The analysts have been off on these numbers in the past by several million. I am seeing more and more iPod ads which leads me to conclude that they are still selling better then most realize.
I am seeing more and more iPod ads which leads me to conclude that they are still selling better then most realize.
I'm not saying you are wrong in your judgements, but your reasoning hardly makes sense.
Nice to be first.
It is also nice to hear the so called experts confirm what I said about two weeks ago. MacBooks are selling very well.
Yeah, for now, and probably through the holidays. But long-term, they really need a $999 notebook. Heck, they need a $799 notebook, really... there's never been a better time to take marketshare away from the PC makers, and sub-$1000 notebooks are a big part of what you need to do that... that's where the potential customers are.
But unfortunately, Apple is thinking margins right now more than anything. They can sell Macbooks like hotcakes, so they won't be willing trim those margins until sales slow down, thus missing a chance to take even more marketshare than they already are. Sigh. \
Ok, I've said my piece. Cue the 'What do you expect, Apple to GIVE AWAY their computers?!?' utter BS Apple sycophant speech. Trust me, I got 'em memorized.
.
TBaggins,
What do you expect, Apple to GIVE AWAY their computers?!? :0
Just couldn't resist...
Seriously, maybe Apple will surprise us for the Christmas season, and introduce a Core 2 Duo MacBook, and keep a low-end MacBook using the Core Duo at $999.
On the other hand, the Apple philosophy is if you want a cheaper Mac, you can just buy the ones that have just been discontinued - either new or refurbished. MicroCenter, here in MA, consistently has the "last generation" Macs for sale at discount for about a month after the new generation Mac has been introduced. A while ago, you could get the discontinued PowerPC MacBooks for $699 and $799, depending on the configuration. Granted that this approach will not increase market share, but maybe they do it to reinforce that their "brand" image is one of premium quality.