AppleInsider Staff
An analysis at 10Layers points out that while both Microsoft and Apple have seen healthy revenue growth in the last 5 years, Apple is growing at a near exponential rate compared to Microsoft's linear path.
"Microsoft’s revenues have grown approximately 60 percent from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006," the report states. "However, while Microsoft has grown linearly for this period, Apple has accelerated with revenues of just under $6B in 2002 growing to just under $21B in 2006."
For Apple, that represents an impressive 250 percent revenue growth.
In an attempt to predict the future growth rates of both firms, 10Layers compiled an extrapolation of Microsoft’s linear and Apple's almost exponential revenue growth from the past twelve months.
The pure extrapolation shows that Apple could catch up with Microsoft as early as 2010 or 2011, given the current growth rates.
"Of course, an extrapolation is just an attempt at predicting the future based on the past," the report states. "It is clear however, that it is likely that Apple will give Microsoft a run for their money."
Christine McKee
Amber Neely
Andrew O'Hara
Malcolm Owen
Mike Wuerthele and Malcolm Owen
William Gallagher
67 Comments
Shawn Wu will clear this all up.
The last line says it all. This is not some natural phenomenon that can be analyzed like that. Things change and profits vary based on markets and interests, not on repeated behavior. Extrapolating a regression is just stupid.
If you pulled that data back another 10 years, you would have a totally different curve that would make even less sense. What is the variable that represents Steve Jobs?
An excellent indicator is that I don't believe there was a single OS release in the entire swath of their data for MS. Obviously, OS releases are something you'd expect to effect their revenues one way or the other, and make the curve "more interesting." I'm going to go out on a limb here and say these folks are imbeciles that should on no account be allowed to use a ruler or the word exponential again.
100% BS. We COULD have flying cars by 2010, but we won't. To talk about the future and say what could happen is poor journalism.
Of course its B.S. but the really interesting item in this article to me is the current state of things. With only 2-5% market share in the Computer world (I never know which number to actually use) Apple revenues are already 50% that of Microsoft. To me that shoots down the 'Apple has to increase market share' argument.
(Hold's arms over head to ward off flying rebuttles )