When Apple reports its fiscal second quarter results later this month, unit sales of its Mac computer line should come in towards the lower-end of expectations as some consumers have begun to put their purchases on hold ahead of the launch of Leopard, one Wall Street analyst says.
"As a result, we are reducing our near-term Mac unit assumptions but raising estimates overall due to more favorable component pricing, better iPod sales, and resumed growth in Macs," the analyst wrote.
For the March quarter, Wu is now modeling Apple to report per-share earnings of 63 cents on sales of $5.12 billion, helped by sales of 1.4 million Macs and 10.3 million iPods. He had previously forecasted the Cupertino-based company to earn 60 cents on sales of $5.05 billion, based on sales of 1.43 million Macs and 9.2 million iPods. (Meanwhile, consensus estimates are at 63 cents and $5.2 billion, well above Apple's official guidance 54 cents to 56 cents and of $4.8-4.9 billion.)
The analyst told clients that iPod sales appeared to have fared more favorably during the second fiscal quarter than once thought, primarily due to better than expected sales of the new low-cost colored iPod shuffles. Meanwhile, he expects Mac sales will resume accelerated growth following the launch of Mac OS X "Leopard" at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference on June 11th.
For the current June quarter, Wu sees Apple offering its customary conservative guidance to reign in "sometimes unrealistic expectations." He's currently modeling for sales of $5.3 billion and per-share earnings of 64 cents, compared to consensus estimates of $5.5 billion and $0.68.
"While we believe Apple shares could be volatile as sell-side estimates get reset, we believe buy-side investors have more or less figured over the past year that sell-side estimates on Apple tend to be overzealous and sometimes outright irrational (particularly near-term)," the analyst told clients. "Regardless, we advise investors to take advantage should Apple shares pull back on short-term
concerns."
Wu reiterated his buy rating on shares of the consumer electronics maker, raising his 12-month price target slightly from $115 to $118.
"We continue to view Apple as among the strongest fundamental stories with its four-prong vertically integrated strategy (Mac, iPod + iTunes, Apple TV, and iPhone) and see several catalysts in the quarters ahead, including Mac OS X Leopard, new Macs, new iPods, new movie and carrier partners, and lower cost cell phones," he wrote.
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"... will likely result in sales of between 1.37 million and 1.5 million Macs, significantly less than the 1.6 million units sold during the company's fiscal first quarter ended December."
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ][/c]
Is it just me or did the analysis forget there should be a lift during the Christmas results? I mean really...
I was dutifully plodding through another boring analyst's forecast until I got to the last paragraph.
"We continue to view Apple as among the strongest fundamental stories with its four-prong vertically integrated strategy (Mac, iPod + iTunes, Apple TV, and iPhone) and see several catalysts in the quarters ahead, including Mac OS X Leopard, new Macs, new iPods, new movie and carrier partners, and lower cost cell phones," he wrote.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
Carrier partners? Is he referring to AT&T, other wireless carriers or a different sort of "carrier" altogether?
I would think that sales are going to slid further than analyst's think if Apple does'nt start fixing problens as they arise instead of waiting months to fix bugs in software and other hardware problems, such as expanding batteries in the 17" MacBooks.
Is it just me or did the analysis forget there should be a lift during the Christmas results? I mean really...
Perhaps, but I think they previously expected an upsurge do to people's releunctabce to moving to VIsta. I also recall some preliminary reports from February and March showed an upsurge in Mac sales. Still, I don't think that a projected 0.1 to 0.21M lower from Q1 is "signifiacntly less".
anyone out there know if the new imacs will have quad cores? i already sold my 24" imac on ebay and am just holding my macbook so i wont be stuck with it, not to mention leopard its coming out also i found a pic at the link below although it looks like photo shop, i want something like that
http://idisk.mac.com/antizeit1/Public/blackmac23.jpg