Neil HughesGene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.
"We believe the iPad represents a meaningful product category for Apple as a secondary computing device for those who already have a primary computer, a primary device for those who could not previously afford a Mac, and the first Apple product that will be a success in the enterprise," he wrote. "We see the iPad as the Mac for the masses."
His prediction is based on three factors: increased supply and expanded distribution channels, international rollout and adoption in price-sensitive markets, and uptake in the enterprise sector.
Munster said that increased presence of the iPad in retail stores will help to drive sales. Best Buy recently announced that it will expand iPad sales to all its U.S. stores this week, while Target is rumored to sell the device beginning next month.
Earlier this month, the iPad launched in China and 5 Latin American countries. In these "price-sensitive markets," the iPad is more likely to be used as a primary computing device by people who could not previously afford a Mac, Munster said.
Finally, he said the iPad has the potential to take the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. He noted that the company revealed in June that more than 50 percent of the Fortune 100 are deploying or testing the iPad.
Munster believes Apple will control 94 percent o the worldwide tablet market in calendar year 2010, with 10.7 million of the total 11.3 million tablet sales for the year. In the future, he sees Android as the iPad's primary competition, as the next 3.0 release, codenamed "Gingerbread," is said to support tablet devices.
Piper Jaffray has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $390, with revenue estimates increased from $78.96 billion to $83.13 billion. The calendar year 2011 earnings per share estimate has also been increased from $16.87 to $17.75.
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117 Comments
Well I love my iPad, but I also love my MacBook Pro, both fulfill a different need for me. As I commute to work which is around an hours train journey each way I find that my iPad serves as my book, newspaper, movie player, email system etc etc during the day.
When home I tend to just use my iPhone for a quick internet session or turn to my MacBook for anything else.
I'm sure there are many people like me who will continue to use the iPad as an intermdediate device.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
RIM believes this, which I'm sure is the motivating factor for their Blackpad. And I can't blame them for putting out a "me too" product. They have to protect their home turf, because if big business takes a shine to the iPad, they might look at the iPhone as a viable device as well. Then it's game over for the Blackberry.
He's probably also factoring in how rubbish other companies tablets have been so far.
The potential good contenders so far are Blackberry's offering next week - but that's running on an entirely new QNX based platform, so there aren't any applications yet, and in addition the price isn't known yet, nor the feature set.
Also HP will have a WebOS offering at some point.
And early next year the Tegra 2 based tablets with Android 3 will arrive. So far these are overpriced for the featureset, many have poor build quality. They make the iPad look like a complete bargain.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
I think 94% of 2010 is perfectly reasonable. 2011 is probably much lower, at probably only 50-70%. The problem is that effectively the only tablet on the market as of today is the iPad. Once competitors come out with their products the percentage definitely will go down.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?
Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesn?t play in.
Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn?t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?