Neil HughesMike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets sees up to a fifth of original iPad buyers switching to the iPad 2 over the next 12 months. But most who buy an iPad 2 in 2011 will be new to the platform, and Abramsky expects Apple will sell 28 million of its touchscreen tablet in this calendar year.
He expects those sales to get off to a strong start this weekend, as Apple may sell more than 500,000 of the iPad 2 after it goes on sale today at 5 p.m. That would nearly double the 300,000 first-gen iPads sold on launch day last April.
The launch will also be bolstered by more than 10 times larger retail distribution, at nearly 10,000 stores, including Apple's retail outlets, Best Buy, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Target and Walmart. The analyst said initial sales could exceed his estimates if available stock is greater than expected on launch weekend.
New buyers likely waited for the second-generation device, looking for upgrades from the initial product and also waiting to gauge the popularity of the tablet form factor, Abramsky believes. He sees the global tablet market growing to sales of 50 million devices in 2011, a number that would give Apple's estimated sales a 56 percent share of the worldwide market.
If Apple does take 56 percent of the market in 2011, that would be a decrease from the 83 percent of shipments Apple represented in 2010. But a new survey revealed this week also showed that most who plan to buy a tablet — 82 percent — said they will choose Apple's iPad.
Charles Martin
Wesley Hilliard
Oliver Haslam
Marko Zivkovic
Amber Neely
44 Comments
and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!
and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!
Heh. Still, it will be interesting to see if the owners of a very new product are already prepared to upgrade.
There's an impact for Apple here, in terms of what happens to those original iPads. Many will be passed along to the kids, some donated, some will be sold at a discount on eBay.
Since these used iPads are, after all, practically new, their distribution (however its done) will definitely hinder sales of competing devices.
One way or another, Apple dominates this market.
I just sold my 16G wifi only on Craigslist for $300 and ordered a new one this am. After a week without it, what I miss most is reading on it, even though I still use my Kindle when I am out places. I can see the value of upgrading if only for the lighter form factor and speed of internet page loading. Hopefully video will be a nice feature.
I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.
I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.
You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.