Josh Ong
Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt compiled the list, noting an average of 29.74 million for professional analysts and and an average of 33.4 million among independent analysts.
Among 22 Wall Street analysts, the highest response came from BTIG's Walter PIecyk with a forecast of 35 million units. The low among professional analysts came from Gabelli's Hendi Susanto, who estimates Apple sold 25.2 million iPhones. The professional analysts' consensus would represent a year-over-year increase of 83 percent.
The 15 independents polled projected 106 percent growth from a year ago. Robert Paul Leitao offered the highest estimate of 35.75 million units, followed closely by Asymco's Horace Dediu with 35.70 million. Alexis Cabot of the Apple Finance Board offered the lowest independent estimate with 30.17 million iPhones. Also of note, Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross Research believes Apple will report 32 million units from the December quarter.
Though amateur analysts are usually more accurate in their predictions than their Wall Street counterparts, the sequential drop in sales in the September 2011 quarter as customers held off on buying the iPhone 4 in anticipation of the iPhone 4S caught bloggers by surprise. Apple sold 17 million iPhones in the third quarter of calendar 2011, down from its all-time high of 20.34 million units in the June 2011 quarter.
Credit: Fortune
Analysts were given an unusually candid prediction from Apple itself during last quarter's earnings conference call. CEO TIm Cook said he was "confident" that the company would break the record for most iPhones sold in a quarter during the holiday quarter. The iPhone maker is also guiding for record revenues of $37 billion during the period, driven largely by its best-selling handset. The results are aided by the fact that this particular quarter lasts 14 weeks rather than the usual 13 in order to align the fiscal period with the December calendar.
Last week's news that Verizon had doubled its iPhone sales from 2 million in the September quarter to 4.2 million during the most recent quarter was taken as an early indicator of a blowout quarter from Apple. UBS analyst Maynard Um kept his prediction of 30 million units, while noting that Verizon's sales figures could suggest strong potential for an upside if the mix of U.S. and international sales remains roughly the same as in years past.
Apple is set to announce its quarterly results on Tuesday, Jan. 24. Wall Street expects Apple to post profits of $9.83 billion on revenue of $38.16 billion. As usual, AppleInsider will have live, extensive coverage of the company's earnings report and conference call.
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20 Comments
It has been said before, but when Apple sells 35,999,999 iPhones, their stock will go back to $370.
Taking all bets. I think it's low by 2.75M but I'm going with Andy Zaky's 32M as my final answer.
Given the fact that for Apple, the bottleneck is not demand, but production, I think the right approach would be to estimate the production capacities, which would give the best estimation ...
Given the fact that for Apple, the bottleneck is not demand, but production, I think the right approach would be to estimate the production capacities, which would give the best estimation ...
Good Luck!!
Production was ~200,000/day but has ramped up to ~400,000/day now, plus what were the inventory run-ups prior to the intro? I found it interesting when I asked a salesman what the lead time was on the 4S currently, same as it was in late October, week to two weeks. "We never have any on hand they sell out prior to us getting them, still!" They get shipments usually every week as well.
Intro on Oct 14 so 17 days at 300,000 = 5,100,000
Nov 30 days at 300,000 = 9,000,000
Dec 31 days at 300,000 = 9,300,000
That is roughly 23million
Assuming that production ramped quickly and supposing they had large inventories prior to the release making production closer to 400,000/day, also supported by the fact that wait times have been roughly at 1 to 2 weeks the entire time and Apple has introduced 4S in several countries during that same time period, again wait time didn't budge much if any, so that would make the total @ 400,000/day, Oct 17 days, Nov 30 days, Dec 31 days = 31,200,000 but that is Foxconn China rumored numbers only. If there are other iPhone 4S manufactures then that number could easily be much higher, also there is that plant in Brazil, don't know what they are producing, could be 4s as well as others, and that is just one other known plant that could produce the iPhone 4s. I have read that iPhone total production numbers could have reached 500,000/day easily prior to launch and could have ramped up from there. So I think I'm painting a moving target, here. I agree the prior estimates by Zaky are probably the best. Oh and the iPhone for sale in Brazil sans the import tax, that's nice! So 25mil to 36mil could be done easily. @500,000/day = 39M, just for reference.
Ty
Good Luck!!
Ty
Well, I would not have accepted this challenge, but your reasoning is quite impressive. This gives (as far as we can tell about Apple production capacities, of course) a good estimate of what the upper limit can be ...