William Gallagher
Details from the supply chain claim that at least the major 5G component manufacturers are ready to fulfill orders for a regular September launch, but are waiting to hear from Apple.
Previous see-saw reports claiming equally that Apple will delay the "iPhone 12" and that no, suppliers are ready to launch on schedule, may not be as opposite as they seemed. For a new report suggests that a delay could come down to a strategy decision rather than be forced on Apple because of supply limitations.
According to Digitimes, industry sources say that suppliers of 5G modules are able to produce the components to the volume and deadlines as originally scheduled. Specifically, the publication claims that TSMC and ASE Technology, primary makers of the essential mmWave AiP modules, TSMC and ASE Technology, are ready to go into mass production.
Digitimes says that these assembly partners may delay volume production by at least one month, though, depending on Apple's strategy.
While Digitimes has no further details, and Apple is of course not commenting, the company will be working out the optimum time to release 5G iPhones. As well as manufacturing resources, there are also distribution issues — and perhaps above all, also customer appetite for buying expensive new phones in the current climate.
Under Tim Cook, Apple has long been a proponent of the Just In Time manufacturing model, where products are assembled when needed and not before. It's key to how the company keeps unsold inventory low, compared to rivals, and so Apple asking suppliers to delay would be entirely in keeping with its usual approach.
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It's difficult to imagine a situation that provokes a change in strategy which sees the Christmas season missed, as this is historically Apple’s blowout quarter.
The consumer side of things is worrying as many of Apple’s customers could be constraimed financially come year end. The problem is that the situation won't be any better after Christmas either. In that sense, a delay based on a strategy move wouldn't help much.
From a medical/science perspective we don't yet know if (supposing cases level off) the virus will spring back into full swing around Christmas. That area is difficult to predict.
Perhaps there are software issues forcing a re-think on the 2020 refresh.
Or perhaps a new, more fragmented refresh with, for example, three models released during the year. This would be a radical change for Apple.
September/October = flagship 1
March/April = flagship 2
June = SE
That would tie Apple in with the wider industry and allow them to release features during the year, as opposed to dumping all of them on the market at Christmas and having to wait a full year before having another opportunity.
Of those possibilities, I think software preparation delays make the most sense, if the rumour of the delay is true of course.
Global supply chain management is an incredibly complex task, and add a world pandemic to the formula and it borders on the impossible. I attended a conference and the speaker was head of supply chain for HP, he used an example ... just one model of laptop they sold had about one thousand parts - he said not having one specific screw on time could hold up the entire product release. Many suppliers can be multi-sourced, but many cannot (CPU, radio). Here’s to hoping Apple can pull it off to keep with their scheduled releases ... I suspect due to the virus there were other product intros planned for March that were delayed, and some components were swapped for others in the recent releases.
Do you believe it. Apple suppliers have NDA with Apple not allow to talk like this for the unannounced product/s. They know if they talk premature than they will loose Apple's big business.