Mikey Campbell
Apple Watch crossed an important threshold in December when the wearable hit an installed user base of 100 million people, according to statistics compiled by analyst Neil Cybart.
In research published to his website Above Avalon on Thursday, Cybart estimates Apple Watch adoption is accelerating, with some 30 million users embracing the platform in 2020. That figure almost surpasses the number of new Apple Watch users in 2015, 2016 and 2017 combined.
"At 100 million users, the Apple Watch is Apple's fourth-largest product installed base behind the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. At the current sales trajectory, the Apple Watch installed base will surpass the Mac installed base in 2022," Cybart says. "Surpassing the iPad installed base will take longer and likely be measured in a number of years based on the current sales trajectory."
The analyst sees four key factors driving Apple Watch growth: scalable form factor, utility of a wrist-worn wearable, cool factor, and the Apple ecosystem.
The product still has room to grow, with the analyst estimating only 10% of all iPhone users also own an Apple Watch. That percentage was pegged at 35% in the U.S. at the end of 2020, a "shockingly strong" rate of adoption which, if applied on a global scale, would give Watch an installed base above 350 million people.
Cybart argues that Apple could easily address a vastly larger market by opening Apple Watch to non-iPhone owners, a scenario in which a 10% adoption rate would equate to 350 million users.
Apple last year expanded Apple Watch's reach with Family Setup, a feature that allows children and older adults to set up a current model cellular Apple Watch using a family member's iPhone. Each provisioned Watch gets its own phone number and attached account, while iPhone owners have a bevy of monitoring and control tools at their disposal including location notifications.
Apple most recently updated its wearable with Apple Watch Series 6 in 2020, adding a blood oxygen sensor, faster processor and new case colors to the line. A more affordable Apple Watch SE launched in tandem, incorporating elements of the Series 6 with components from past models like the Retina Display of Apple Watch Series 4.
While Apple no longer breaks out category sales numbers, the company recorded record profits of $12.97 billion in its Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment during the first fiscal quarter of 2021. That figure was up from $10.1 billion recorded in the year prior.
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12 Comments
Well, so much for Apple Watch being a sleeper product that only a few people would actually use.
People chronically underestimate the popularity of products like the Apple Watch, the HomePod, and the Apple TV because they aren't seen the most popular in most cases (and Apple does not release sales figures). This estimate by Cybart is certainly closer to right than anything the likes of Wall Street and morons like IDC and Gartner can pull out of their butts, but it is still an estimate (and likely based on the premise that all Apple Watch owners have upgraded at least once).
In total I'm sure more cheap crappily-made Fitbits have been sold in total, certainly more cheap spyware smart speakers have been sold, and undoubtedly the Apple TV is nearly the lowest-selling streamer box (the Fire Stick has a wide reputation for being terrible even by the standards of cheap sticks, so I'm assuming it doesn't sell well despite Amazon practically giving them away). But all of these products sell far more than enough to justify their continuance, all of them strengthen the overall Apple ecosystem, and most importantly people who own these products tend to love them quite strongly.
ISTR that Tim once said (a couple-three years ago, IIRC) the Apple TV sells about 20ish million a year, with little variance from one quarter to the next (except, of course, for Christmas). If that's still true, then the Apple TV is about as popular as the Mac, which generally averages around 5-6M units per quarter. It's no iPhone, but it's doing well, and clearly the Apple Watch is doing even better. The HomePod is likely to be the least popular of these three, but now with the HomePod mini sales included that could easily change.
Thing that pisses me off, is people keep saying:
"Apple is continually looking the NeXT big thing..."
"The HAVE to come up with that NeXT NEW hot thing!"
"...and if the don't"
It's like FOOLS, they have Watch plus AirPods. That's enough, but they also have, iPads. To boot they just released Apple Silicon. To me it's like:
Watch
AirPods
iPads
and little mac... Those four EQUAL iPhones.
if you look at the latest financials, it's pretty much a 50% 50% split, especially if you throw in Services...
Laters...
2¢
“… all of them strengthen the overall Apple ecosystem”. This.