Mike Peterson
Lead time analysis suggests that Apple may have found supply and demand balance for the iPhone 13, while supply of the MacBook Pro remains constrained — particularly for the M1 Max models.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall took a look at lead times after the busy holiday shopping season for the iPhone 13 lineup and Apple's new M1 Pro and M1 Max MacBook Pro models.
According to Hall, iPhone 13 Pro model lead times have dropped back to mid-December 2021 levels, while iPhone 13 Pro Max lead times remain elevated at three to five days. There was no change toe elevated MacBook Pro lead times.
"We believe this pattern is consistent with supply for iPhone being more or less in balance with demand while MacBook Pros remain supply constrained," Hall writes.
The analyst also points out that, for the MacBook Pro lineup, Goldman Sachs is seeing M1 Pro chips lead times begin to moderate, while M1 Max lead times remained "roughly unchanged and substantially elevated."
Hall believes that supply and shipping times will determine whether iPhone lead times settle back down to zero or remain slightly elevated. The fact that M1 Pro delivery estimates are moderating likely points to better supply for that chip than the M1 Max, he added.
The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $142, based on a 27x multiple applied to his Q5 to Q8 earnings-per-share forecast. Apple stock is presently at $179, and Hall has been underwater on his target estimate for months.
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6 Comments
Sounds about right. I've been waiting on a custom-build 14-inch MacBook Pro with M1 Max for over two months now, since late October 2021. It was originally supposed to be delivered in mid-December, but Apple revised the expected arrival date to late January.
I have waited three months for delivery of two Macintoshes before … but that was back in the early 1990s when Apple was still just a tiny company and Tim Cook hadn't yet arrived to tame the inventory and supply chain beasts. As for my M1 Max-based MacBook Pro today, it's hard to imagine why it's taking so long! One might think we are living through a pandemic with global semiconductor shortages.
Meanwhile the investors who rely on Hall have been losing money hand over fist while waiting for AAPL to drop.
Funny thing is reports say the next updated Macs might be announced at WWDC (or sooner). Here we are again trying to decide whether to wait for a duo- or quad-M1 Max. My original M1 MBA seems old and slow—until I talk to people who are still using Intel Macs, including a 2010 Mac Pro. I compared benchmarks on all those configurations and I believe my 8+8 MBA is actually faster, especially when attaching thunderbolt drives. I wish I still had a justification for the latest Macs but I really don’t. Well that never stopped me before! Happy New Year, it should be another exciting one for Apple products.
Well worth the wait. Been using my 16" M1 Max and it's an absolute beast. Going back to my original 12" PowerBookG4, the switch over to the original 2006MacBookPro was a modest bump at best. Kept that till 2012 when the original retinaMBP came out. Even though it was a 6 year upgrade it didn't feel like a drastic jump. Noticeable, but nothing crazy. Same experience when I jumped to the 2016MBP. Even less of a change when I went to the 2019MBP (upgraded just because I couldn't stand that god awful keyboard anymore). Jump 2 years later and this is the shortest gap of an upgrade I've EVER done and somehow it's the most revolutionary. Apple Silicon is insane!!! Bravo Apple
I got mine! Still trying to get the fan to come on. I really miss the mini-jet engine whine of every one of my Intel MBPs. /s