Ming-Chi Kuo predicts a dim future for Apple Vision Pro

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple Vision Pro shipments will be limited by a few key suppliers to half what's been predicted, and an update won't arrive until 2027.

In a Medium post on Tuesday, Ming-Chi Kuo is swinging wide with prognostications about the Apple Vision Pro headset.

Based on some component suppliers' maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000-600,000 units," Kuo claims. Apparently, the market expectation for shipments in 2024 is one million, according to Kuo.

He goes on to guess that Apple may have canceled a low-cost Apple Vision headset in 2025. He cites price for the Apple Vision Pro being a problem, leading to shipment growth of the first version of Apple's headset "not materializing."

Furthermore, he doesn't foresee mass production of a Vision Pro 2 headset until the first half of 2027. This suggests to him that there may be no hardware updates for the headset in over three years.

His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience."

"The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone," Kuo concludes.

The $3499 Apple Vision Pro was announced at the 2023 WWDC. The software for it is still in beta, and CEO Tim Cook says that it is "on track" for early 2024 shipments.

28 Comments

Xed 4 Years · 2896 comments

About 1 year ago

"His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience.""

I'm certainly in that boat.

StrangeDays 8 Years · 12986 comments

Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.

netrox 12 Years · 1510 comments

I am not sure why he makes that assumption. The Apple Vision Pro is targeted to developers, creators, designers, professionals, and serious hobbyists, not for the consumer public.

It will take time for Vision Pro to be refined and economical for the mass.

twolf2919 2 Years · 149 comments

StrangeDays said:

Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.

Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense. The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience. He's, of course, purely guessing with regards to Vision Pro 2 coming out in the 2027 timeframe. I'd submit that by that timeframe, Apple will have woken up and realized that Apple Glasses will be the only gadget with truly mass market appeal. It is this product that everybody was hoping for in 2023 instead of the techno-tour-de-force that is Vision Pro. Coincidentally, after the VP came out, there were rumors that Apple Glass had been pushed back to....2027 or so.

twolf2919 said:

StrangeDays said:

Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.

Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense. The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience. He's, of course, purely guessing with regards to Vision Pro 2 coming out in the 2027 timeframe. I'd submit that by that timeframe, Apple will have woken up and realized that Apple Glasses will be the only gadget with truly mass market appeal. It is this product that everybody was hoping for in 2023 instead of the techno-tour-de-force that is Vision Pro. Coincidentally, after the VP came out, there were rumors that Apple Glass had been pushed back to....2027 or so.

So your common sense reply is that Apple will drop VR entirely and go with AR-only glasses?