Ming-Chi Kuo has changed his mind about MacBook Pro updates, forecasting historically tight supplies for new models until the first quarter of 2024.
Famed Apple-centric analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has been a major supporter of rumors that Apple won't be coming out with new Mac models before the end of the year. Now, with the prospect of an event in a week's time with heavy hinting at Mac-related activity, the analyst has changed his tune.
"I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be October 30th media event's focus," tweets Kuo on X shortly after Apple's event announcement. He also admits to having "previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely," citing limited fourth-quarter shipments.
I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be Oct 30th media event's focus. I previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely due to limited 4Q23 shipments (less than 400-500k units in total). If new MBPs launch in Nov-Dec, tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens. pic.twitter.com/R6tVIYyQop— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) October 24, 2023
Kuo's numbers put the shipments of MacBook Pro units to "less than 400-500k units in total" for the quarter. Even on the high-end of Kuo's prediction, this is less than one-third of the available units for the previous MacBook Pro debuts.
It's also been only 10 months since the last refresh of the flagship MacBook Pro line. There were 15 months between the M1 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, and the corresponding M2 versions.
As such, Kuo warns that if there are new MacBook Pro models, the "tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens."
Kuo's tweet just discusses Macs, most likely because of Apple's hinting. However, he has made similar claims about iPads, saying in September it is "unlikely" that any updates will surface for the product line before the end of 2023.
Kuo has yet to comment on iPads since the event's announcement.