Apple admits third-party App Stores in Europe are inevitable

Apple's latest financial filings show that the company expects to be forced into allowing third-party App Store across Europe, starting in 2024.

Following the passing into law of its Digital Markets Act, the European Union has previously told Apple that it must open up its App Store to rivals. Apple has tried arguing against the ruling, or at least significant parts of it, but now expects App Store changes to be inevitable.

"The Company expects to make further business changes in the future, including as a result of legislative initiatives impacting the App Store," says Apple in a Form 10-K, "such as the European Union ("EU") Digital Markets Act, which the Company is required to comply with by March 2024."

This notice comes in a section of the 10-K which describes risks to the company and its expected profitability.

"Future changes could also affect what the Company charges developers for access to its platforms, how it manages distribution of apps outside of the App Store," it continues, "and how and to what extent it allows developers to communicate with consumers inside the App Store regarding alternative purchasing mechanisms."

Overall, this "could reduce the volume of sales, and the commission that the Company earns on those sales, would decrease." Apple says that if the commission Apple gets on App Store sales is reduced, "the Company's business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected."

Apple has not commented since making this filing. However, it has previous strenuously argued against allowing third-party app stores and what's called sideloading of apps.

As spotted by TechCrunch, analysts Morgan Stanley believe that the new wording in the 10-K form confirms the fact that third-party access is coming. Apple will "likely begin 3rd party app stores on device in Europe," say the analysts.

"We believe Apple is well positioned to compete should these changes take place," continued Morgan Stanley, "due to the App Store's security, centralization, and convenience, limiting the potential user experience and/or P&L impact.

Separately, Morgan Stanley has been taking a longer-term view of Apple's stock price than some analysts. Nonetheless, in October 2023 it dropped its price target to $210.

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34 Comments

jimh2 8 Years · 671 comments

About 1 year ago

Those using the 3rd party app stores for their products will quickly find out 99.99% of iPhone users will never venture over there to hand out the credit card and personal information to another company. They may well find out the $99 developer kit is no longer $99 for them or their is a per install licensing fee. The really do not know how good they have it now.

Panda_Mick 3 Years · 3 comments

jimh2 said:

Those using the 3rd party app stores for their products will quickly find out 99.99% of iPhone users will never venture over there to hand out the credit card and personal information to another company. They may well find out the $99 developer kit is no longer $99 for them or their is a per install licensing fee. The really do not know how good they have it now.

Quite. And those of us that work in mobile security can't wait for the merde fest that will ensue.

Most enterprises have a good grasp on security, even BYOD: I suspect Apple with have new MDM capability that will block 3rd party app stores, however they manifest themselves

mikethemartian 18 Years · 1495 comments

jimh2 said:

Those using the 3rd party app stores for their products will quickly find out 99.99% of iPhone users will never venture over there to hand out the credit card and personal information to another company. They may well find out the $99 developer kit is no longer $99 for them or their is a per install licensing fee. The really do not know how good they have it now.

It is really easy to get fraudulent charges reversed. You just have to do it in a timely manner as the law specifies and sometimes you can still get it reversed afterwards.

gatorguy 13 Years · 24631 comments

jimh2 said:

Those using the 3rd party app stores for their products will quickly find out 99.99% of iPhone users will never venture over there to hand out the credit card and personal information to another company. They may well find out the $99 developer kit is no longer $99 for them or their is a per install licensing fee. The really do not know how good they have it now.

They already know that.

Google's PlayStore is not the only Android game in town, but it's the only viable one for app success, and where nearly all Google Android owners get their app fixes. (Unless you're in China).

chasm 10 Years · 3626 comments

Here’s what will happen:

1, Alternative App Stores will eventually open in Europe. Apple will still have some level of approval/control on how they run their business. Curious people will go check it out.

2. At some point, one of them will start offering malware disguised as apps, or be discovered to be selling customer data to spammers.

3. Apple or authorities will shut down that store, but the damage will be done.

4. Everyone will flock to the “real” App Store because of security and privacy guarantees the alternative stores will not be able to truthfully offer. Android users have already figured this out — alternative stores exist, but primarily for apps Google doesn’t allow, and they do 1/100,000th the business the Play Store does.

5. Experiment marked as “failed.”