William Gallagher
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has sold between 160,000 and 180,000 of the Apple Vision Pro, but says demand may be falling.
It took just 18 minutes for Apple to sell out of its initial stock of Apple Vision Pro after preorders began on January 19, 2024. After two hours, shipping dates had already slipped back to March and even April.
"Based on pre-order inventory and shipping time, I estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend," wrote analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in a blog post.
It's not clear what Kuo is basing his pre-order inventory calculation on, but he has previously estimated that Apple would make 60,000 to 80,000 units.
"The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened," continues Kuo. "It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders."
Kuo notes that with all Apple pre-orders, especially for the iPhone, there is an immediate increase in shipping times. "However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open," he writes, "indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out."
The analyst cites media reports saying that Apple Vision Pro suppliers such as Luxshare "will work overtime during the Lunar New Year to meet demand, meaning better than expected demand for Vision Pro."
"However, the reality is that because there is still room for improvement in Vision Pro production efficiency," he says, "Luxshare has been working full-time overtime since the start of mass production to offset the impact of production efficiency on shipments."
Again based on his unspecified inventory calculations, Kuo points out that with a "user base of over 1.2 billion active users... as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy... Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order."
Kuo concludes that "right now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product."
Separately, Apple has revealed that the repair cost for a damaged Apple Vision Pro can be as much as $2,399.
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37 Comments
I don't know about this Ming Cho Kuo. Around the Apple haunts he is regarded as some venerable soothsayer like Nostradamus. :D
One day he says that his estimate is 60K-80K units. Then he reads his tea leaves and comes up with 180K sold. But, and this is where he is covering where the sun don't shine, orders are tapering off. And oh, yes, it is a niche product.
OK. Tomorrow Apple starts to sell the hell out of Vision Pro because other than amateurs take an interest - pros in every industry where there is a need for an MR headset - and then Ming comes back and revises his tea leaves and says, well Apple just sold one million VPs and it is no longer a niche product, it is now an industry defining product like the Bondi Blue Mac, the MacBook, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, the AirPods, the Apple Watch and on and on and on. Unlike Google that has a miserable time with hardware releases Apple creates INDUSTRY DEFINING products.
And once VP takes off, Netflix, Spotify etc. etc. will create native apps and Ming will say, 'see, I told you so', forgetting all along that his tea leaves are just that, tea leaves and sometimes he gets it right and most times he gets it wrong.
Perhaps Ming can spend his time more productively looking for MH370. B)
1.2B active users in the US........?
Yes, because big screen TVs, multiple monitor setups and computers/apps are all so niche in society today...I mean, who's really interested in that and why would anyone try to sell those things??