TikTok's ban saga is a mess, with only days before the hammer falls

The ban on TikTok in the United States is happening soon, but the circus surrounding it that's kicked off in the last few days makes it anything but guaranteed.

TikTok has had a troubled existence in the United States, after years of threats for it to be banned. With the latest effort's deadline on January 19, it's days away from a reality.

The latest installment in the ongoing affair is a combination of waiting for a ruling, trying to implement delays on it happening, and searching for a sale. It's anyone's guess what will actually happen to TikTok now, with everything being so uncertain.

With the tight deadline and the varying ways it can go, the ban is causing almost as much drama as some TikTok users.

Delay on doomscrolling

The current ban threat is based on a law from April 2024, signed by President Biden. The law ordered that Chinese owners ByteDance must divest its ownership within nine months, or face being banned in the United States.

The basis was the belief that, as a Chinese company, ByteDance was at risk of the Chinese government accessing the data of US TikTok users. This posed a security risk, despite ByteDance's insistence that it wasn't one.

With the divestiture deadline of January 19 fast approaching, efforts have been made to try and preserve TikTok. Others are trying to delay the ban from happening in the first place.

On the delay front, Senator Edward J. Markey (D-MA) introduced a plan to bring new legislation in to delay the deadline for sale by an additional 270 days.

TikTok for Apple Vision Pro - Image Credit: TikTok

Insisting that TikTok has its problems, including risks to privacy and mental health, Senator Markey insisted "a TikTok ban would impose serious consequences on millions of Americans who depend on the app for social connections and their economic livelihood. We cannot allow that to happen."

Markey's comments, along with those of Rand Paul (R-KY) and Congressman Ro Khanna (CA-17) were submitted as part of a bipartisan, bicameral amicus brief to the U.S. Supreme Court. It urged the Supreme Court to reverse a D.C. Circuit Court ruling that upheld the TikTok Ban, formed under the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act".

The last-minute plan may get some traction, but whether it actually makes enough of an impact to enact a delay remains to be seen.

As a very late play, it could inspire action from lawmakers keen to avoid killing off TikTok in the United States. But, at the same time, the lateness makes it hard to believe the effort will be an actual success.

The U.S. Court of Appeals turned down an appeal to invalidate the law in December, citing that it was a bipartisan effort to counter a "well-substantiated national security threat posed by the PRC (People's Republic of China)."

TikTok applied to the Supreme Court to weigh in after the Court of Appeals' ruling, which gives ByteDance a small chance at an extension. But, it would require the Supreme Court to agree to hear the case, the Supreme Court adding a 90-day stay on law enforcement, and for President Biden to approve the stay.

As the current ban law was signed by Biden, this makes it hard to believe that it would get that approval in the last few days of the Biden presidency.

Trump was against TikTok before he was for it

On December 27, President-Elect Donald Trump requested for the ban to be paused. Instead of delving into arguments on national security, he instead proposed that a political resolution would be possible.

"President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government," Trump's legal brief said.

Donald Trump during his first presidency - Image Credit: United States

Trump's appeal to the court is in part due to the timing of the law itself. The second Trump Presidential Inauguration will occur on January 20, one day after the law kicks in.

The attempt by Trump to wade into the matter at the last moment is apt, given Trump started the whole affair in the first place. In August 2020, Trump signed an executive order attempting to ban TikTok within 45 days.

That inevitably turned into legal challenges and delays, as well as a potential sale to Oracle.

Trump involved himself, causing problems for the deal over some terms. Eventually, the deal fell through, causing the prospect of the U.S. ban to be a continuing one for the next four years.

The latest attempt to step in and delay a ban is almost certainly an attempt by Trump to be the dealmaker on his first day back in the White House. As someone who has repeatedly claimed to be masterful of deal-making, having a hand in a billion-dollar transaction is going to be attractive to him.

The Supreme Court did hear oral arguments about the law on January 10. Axios reports the Supreme Court was seemingly inclined to uphold the law, highlighting that it doesn't mean TikTok had to shut down, only that ByteDance had to divest.

However, the Supreme Court is seeming staying quiet and has yet to say if it will formally hear the case and the deadline looming. It could simply signal its acceptance of the law being acceptable and do nothing, without even bothering to hear more detailed arguments.

Given the apparent leaning of the Supreme Court at this point, it's probable for the ban to start before any extra decisions would be made by it, if at all.

Shopping TikTok

With the ban seemingly likely to arrive without the Supreme Court's temporary reprieve, that leaves the survival of TikTok in the hands of a sale. Aside from Trump seemingly needing to step in and facilitate a major deal for this as President, other avenues are also being considered.

That includes an unusual long shot to secure an unexpected owner: Elon Musk.

Early on January 14, a Bloomberg report floated that Chinese officials are considering a sale of the app's US operations to Elon Musk. The same person who owns rival social media service X.

Elon Musk, a potential out for TikTok in the U.S.

Discussions have taken place to determine how to work with the Trump Administration, including Musk. Under the proposals, Misk would own both X and TikTok US and operate them as separate entities.

For Musk, this would mean a considerable collection of 170 million users of TikTok that could be advertised to, alongside X's efforts. Not to mention the benefits of access to the user data from TikTok that could be fed into Musk's AI company, xAI.

More eyeballs for ads, more data to analyze, and the prospect of making X more of an "everything app" could lure Musk into accepting the deal in some form. After all, a lure is basically how he got into Twitter/X in the first place.

It's a move that could also bolster TikTok's popularity with the government in general. Musk is set to become the head of the Department of Government Efficiency under Trump.

Shortly after the report that Musk could be involved, it seemed that it wasn't necessarily true.

"We can't be expected to comment on pure fiction," a TikTok representative told Variety, casting some doubt that such a deal could take place.

The outspoken Musk has been uncharacteristically quiet about TikTok. He has yet to post to X about the claims, which is unusual for the guy.

So, that leaves open the possibility that Musk may take control of US TikTok in some way. Again it leaves a big question mark over the future of TikTok as a whole.

The next President of the U.S. will be one day late in gaining powers, while the prospect of a sale is questionable at best.

Four years after the initial attempt to ban it, complete with attempts of a sale, we're back to practically the same position. Except this time TikTok is more of a social media behemoth, and a lot more valuable.

We've been reporting on rumors for a long time, and have learned that where there's smoke about big tech companies, there's generally fire. It's just not certain right now whether this fire is the restorative kind, or the destructive wave.