Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

Apple's suppliers are reportedly in the process of making 75 million of the September 2019 'iPhone 11' range, which is approximately the same as orders for the 2018 models.

That 75 million production order is approximately the same as it was for the 2018 family that included the iPhone XR, iPhone XS, and iPhone XS Max at launch. Apple is apparently anticipating that demand will remain steady, at least in the first few months, despite an overall fall in smartphone demand and the ongoing trade disputes between the US and China.

According to Bloomberg, suppliers in Asia are planning for 75 million devices, and to have the capacity to go to 80 million if required. The figures, from unnamed sources in the supply chain, are for all three of the expected new iPhone models.

Foxconn, in particular, is reported to be increasing its workforce in Shenzen. It is also believed to be paying staff around 10% more this year in order to ensure having enough people to make the devices.

That's despite Foxconn's founder urging Apple to move its iPhone production away from China over both rising labor costs and the US/China trade tensions.

The 75 million would only be for the launch period of the device, spanning September, October, and some of November. Apple provides estimated order quantities up front to device manufacturers, and adjusts them as device demand peaks and wanes, as well as tailoring them for consumer demand of a particular model.

That will be in part because of how sales of the iPhone have declined and also because of persistent rumors that the 2020 iPhones will feature major updates including 5G and possibly an iPad-style ProMotion display.

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22 Comments

avon b7 8008 comments · 20 Years

About 5 years ago

All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

For me though, price remains the number one drawback.

tmay 6455 comments · 11 Years

About 5 years ago

avon b7 said:

All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

For me though, price remains the number one drawback.

"For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

"Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei.
Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."

avon b7 8008 comments · 20 Years

About 5 years ago

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

For me though, price remains the number one drawback.

"For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

"Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei.
Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."

Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.

tmay 6455 comments · 11 Years

About 5 years ago

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

For me though, price remains the number one drawback.

"For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

"Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei.
Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."

Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.

Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV?

Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.

avon b7 8008 comments · 20 Years

About 5 years ago

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

For me though, price remains the number one drawback.

"For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

"Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei.
Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."

Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.

Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV?

Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.

But why bring that aspect into this story?

It's about sales projections based on the supply chain. There is a high level reference to the general political situation too (the trade war in general) referencing manufacturing options.

Competition obviously has a constant influence on sales projections, as does the feature spread of the phones and the final prices but to insert your North Korea claims in here is pretty way off base.