Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that 2023's iPhones will show a greater gap between the regular and Pro models, and also between the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max.
As Apple prepares to take preorders for the iPhone 14 range, Kuo has figures from the industry about what proportion of the different models Apple is ordering from its manufacturers. Based partly on that, he's also extrapolated what he believes is a trend to differentiate models that will become clearer with the iPhone 15.
Kuo reports that a survey of supply chain sources in China reveals that Apple is ordering production of dramatically more Pro models than the regular ones. Together, the "total order allocation for two 14 Pros is about 85%" of Apple's total orders, says Kuo.
He also notes that the "14 Plus has the lowest order allocation (less than 5%)."
Kuo does note that "pre-orders for Apple's high-end products have always been more popular in the early stage." However, he says the difference is more acute this time, "reflecting Apple's product segmentation strategy change (only Pros receive major updates)."
For the first time, Apple has kept its latest processor for the iPhone 14 Pro models, and left the regular iPhone 14 running a version of last year's chip. Kuo thinks this pattern will continue, and that Apple will do more to increase the appeal of future Pro models.
(1/2)
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) September 9, 2022
I believe Apple will create more differentiation between iPhone 15 Pros and iPhone 15 standard models to increase Pro shipment allocation and the new iPhone ASP.
"Taking a step further," Kuo continues, "Apple will also start creating differentiation between the iPhone 15 Pro Max and the iPhone 15 Pro."
"It's the best practice via a precise product segmentation strategy to generate more sales/profits in a mature market," he says.
Kuo does not make any predictions about what feature differences there could be between the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max. However, it would not be the first time Apple has done this — the iPhone 12 Pro Max had sensor shift optical image stabilization that the iPhone 12 Pro did not.
7 Comments
From Apple's perspective it makes more sense to differentiate on features as they have more models to spread them over now (since they moved on from the two model approach).
They have always used upsell to squeeze (bleed!) more out of users (through storage for example) and now they can start upselling with more feature differences, even if those features come late and at a price.
It's not great for consumers but it's up to consumers to decide. I jumped ship because I couldn't see the bang for buck that I wanted.
Apple can always adjust prices to stimulate demand if it slackens. Let's not forget it wasn't long ago that it had to stick huge discounts (through trade-in offers) on its home page before Christmas to stimulate demand.
I can't help but think that consumers are being undersold again here especially on the non-pro models but the market will decide and Apple has room for manoeuvre.
It's not shocking that the vast majority are getting the Pro. Entry level customers and enterprises are getting the SE, and both standard models are so expensive that financing is needed, so when you are going to keep a device for 2+ years it only makes sense to spend the extra few bucks per month to get the more feature-rich version so it stays relevant longer.
Kuo is hardly reliable. I suspect the base 14 won’t sell insanely high because it’s basically the insides of a 13 Pro in the housing of a 13. (This is one of the reasons when I was leaving a job where I could get a discount in a 13 in the Spring I took it, the 13 is a good phone.
I think it’s sad to see the mini go, but I understand why they’re just letting the 13 mini happen again this year. They’ll be able to gauge how much depend there is for it. Maybe we’ll see a 15 mini but I have my doubts.
That said I doubt Apple wants to confuse people too much. This year’s lineup is great. You have the SE and the 12 at the entry level, you can either have a bigger screen and a slower chip or a faster chip no Face ID and smaller screen.