William Gallagher
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has not begun developing a third generation of the Apple Watch Ultra, and so it's unlikely it will release one in 2024.
Apple made no visible changes to the Apple Watch Ultra when it unveiled a second-edition in 2023, but arguably it didn't have to. Apple Watch Ultra 2 is faster than its predecessor, though, plus it has a brighter screen and — now with watchOS 10.1watchOS 10 — it has Double Tap.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo, though, there is as yet no development work being done for what would presumably be called the Apple Watch Ultra 3.
"As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially," he reported on his blog. "It is unusual given the product development schedule."
"If Apple doesn't officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it's almost confirmed that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024," he continued.
Kuo's reports tend now to be a mix of supply chain information and extrapolation based on his experience covering Apple. It's not clear how certain the lack of development is, but Kuo is surmising that he knows the reason.
"I think Apple hasn't officially kicked off Apple Watch Ultra 3 project," he said, "because it needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production."
However, Kuo also predicts that the lack of an updated 2024 Apple Watch Ultra will hurt sales. He says that unless there is an update, "shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20— 30% YoY in 2024, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by 10% YoY in 2024 to about 35 million units."
Kuo's reports and predictions back up a recent leak suggesting that the next Apple Watch Ultra would be released in 2025. That rumor specifically said that the next update would feature a microLED screen.
With a microLED screen, the Watch's display recent leak">could be up to 30 times brighter than the current OLED. At the same time, it would be more power efficient, and so help the Apple Watch Ultra's battery life.
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In development or planned for next year? I could see them next year doing a Watch X which might have like a redesign either with different material, new casing etc. Unlesd they figured out blood pressure or blood sugar, they may not have a reason to release a proper series 10 because they won’t have a faster SIP (they tend to get faster now every 2-3 years. And the S9 is probably plenty fast for a watch. So unless they need to integrate a new sensor next year there probably won’t be a need for a new Ultra model next year.
Looking at Apple’s product list, and I don’t really see anything that still needs to be on a strict 12-month upgrade cycle. Not now. Not anymore.
I’m not convinced that Kuo (or Gurman) have a clue about Apple’s plans. I think they are just second guessing all the time which is why their ‘predictions’ are often spectacularly wrong.
What would be interesting to know is the percentage of Apple Watch Ultra owner who actually use them for extreme sports. The one feature of the Ultra for the average user benefits from is the extended battery life the rest is basically same as the normal Apple watches. I was temped to get one for the larger screen but those watches are gigantic especially how high they sit on your wrist. So a lot of the people buying the Ultra are just buying it to be a giant status symbol on their wrist, which Apple thanks you being a billboard for them.
Me I wish Apple would focus on the regular series of watch on maybe make them a tiny bit thicker for more battery life that's a trade off I'd make. Then continue working on new sensors to increase the health benefits of the Apple watch. That may not be flashy but it would be of value to all owners of Apple watches.