Macworld: Apple expected to surprise at Macworld Expo
An unusual level of uncertainty over product announcements expected from Apple Computer on Tuesday will likely to allow chief executive Steve Jobs more room to surprise, one Wall Street analyst says.
Wu anticipates the Cupertino-based company will focus its announcements on two areas — Macs and home entertainment. He told clients that supply chain sources have indicated that both video iPods with Bluetooth stereo headphones and cell phones are "near/at" their respective manufacturing stages.
"The very successful vPod has not had a major update since August 2005 when it was first announced," he wrote. "Our analysis in the supply chain indicates that its successor has been under development for some time and recent data indicates shifting component order dynamics."
Still, Wu said he does "not have high conviction on timing" for the availability of the devices. Similarly, he is unsure of the company's go-to-market strategy and provider model for its cell phone initiative.
Meanwhile, the analyst said its likely Jobs will announce new movie content partnerships with one or more studios during Macworld Expo on Tuesday, adding that his checks also indicate internal development of large-screen technologies to complement iTV.
"We believe iTV will be the first of many products that will place Apple in the home entertainment business in more direct competition with leading consumer electronics companies like Sony and Samsung," he wrote. "In our view, iTV is a logical extension of its iPod + iTunes and Mac franchises giving Apple a sizable head start in home entertainment with its FrontRow software, large TV content and growing movie library."
On the Mac side of the equation, Wu believes the key feature Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard will have over its predecessors is much better Windows compatibility. Despite repetitive denials on the subject from Apple's leadership, the analyst said he is "picking up the potential for full-blown virtual machine capability that will allow seamless use of Mac and Windows at the same time."
Wu recommend clients buy Apple on dips in share price. "We continue to rate Apple shares Buy with a $99 price target," he wrote.
45 Comments
Can anyone point me to the website with the Apple prediction drinking game? I know by now there has to be at least one out there, with some rules like:
If Apple announces a cell-phone, finish your glass.
If Apple announces they're releasing OS X for use on non-Apple computers, finish the whole bottle.
And of course, take a shot for every prediction Shaw Wu makes. Take two shots if it turns out to be true....
Would it make sense for Apple to buy Parallels?
Case for:
1. Easy, affordable virtualization is critical to Apple continuing to gain market share.
2. MS or another could buy and undermine the service Parallels is providing.
3. Without Parallels, VMware Fusion is too expensive to attract home users.
case against:
1. even with parallels, MS wouldn't control market given VMware.
2. the speed and focus of Parallels development might suffer within a larger OS-development team at Apple.
thoughts?
...Meanwhile, the analyst said its likely Jobs will announce new movie content partnerships with one or more studios during Macworld Expo on Tuesday...
"one or more studios"??? WTF? What good is looking for movies from iTunes with just a handful of movies/studios onboard? I watched the CES keynote this morning and they appear to have a lot more networks signed up for movies than Apple does. Apple better figure out how to get the content on iTunes or just take the whole Movie section off. It's kindof shameful how little movies there have been added since iTunes started the movie downloads.
What are you talking about? Disney is there, all of it. The #1 & 2 movies of 06 are there, not to mention all sorts of children's/family movies. There is a lot of crap on iTS, so much so that I think they need to revisit site navigation--but that's another topic. Needless to say, there's a lot of stuff on there.
There could always be more, but I think they are off to a great start in the features realm. Hardly a reason to sound a death knell.
It doesn't really matter what other players in this market are out there...they aren't making any money.
Can anyone point me to the website with the Apple prediction drinking game?...
I'm sure that if the Keynote went on around 6 or 7, there would be plenty of drinking games. Who's drinking at noon...on Tuesday?