Neil HughesAnalysts polled by Thomson Reuters Financial expect the hardware maker to report earnings of $1.42 per share, a 13 percent increase from the year-ago quarter and well above Apple's own projection of $1.18 to $1.23, according to The Wall Street Journal. Last year, Apple saw its fourth quarter profit rise 26 percent to $1.14 billion, or $1.126 per diluted share.
Apple is scheduled to report its earnings Monday at 2 p.m. pacific, 5 p.m. eastern.
During the last quarter, Apple unveiled new iPods at a September media event, including an iPod nano with video camera. But many analysts believe that market will continue to shrink, as consumers gravitate toward media-playing phones over standalone MP3 players. Analyst Mike Abramsky has predicted sales of 9.9 million iPods for the quarter, down 10 percent year over year, though the iPod touch is expected to be a strong seller based on access to the App Store.
Based on margins and explosive growth, the real driver of AAPL stock is the iPhone. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster believes the company will have sold 7.5 million handsets during the September quarter. He, along with most others on Wall Street, expects the company's stock price to go well above $200 in the next 12 months.
With expectations so high, some have cautioned that Apple could disappoint with its earnings. Analyst Yair Reiner with Oppenheimer said in a note to investors last week that supply constraints of the iPhone 3GS due to high demand could lead to fewer handset sales than are expected. He views December as a "catch-up quarter," when Apple could easily sell more than 8 million iPhones.
Mac sales are predicted to be at a record setting pace, with analysts forecasting around 2.8 million in sales for the fourth quarter. If accurate, that would be the company's best-ever frame, topping a year ago when it sold 2.6 million Macs during the September 2008 quarter. Those sales, along with 6.5 million iPhones, helped the company's profits rise 26 percent year-over-year.
Looking ahead, analysts already expect December earnings of $1.91 per share, according to Thomson Reuters. They also expect Apple, which traditionally gives very conservative guidance, to forecast $1.68 per share.
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26 Comments
C'mon, big money, no whammies!
Now would be a good time to announce that iMac event Apple... hint thint
In other words, if Apple reports very good results, better than what they promised to deliver but short of the impressive numbers analysts are anticipating, the stock will take a hit in the next short while.
Apple has become like the Energizer Bunny of tech stocks. It just keeps going, and going and going. This is something so remarkable during this uncertain economic climate that many of these analysts don't know quite what to make of the company. Having tried being consistently cautionary, only to look like fools as the company continues to advance, they are now opting for a if-you-can't-beat-em-join-em approach.
My prediction, for what it's worth, is that Apple will come in with numbers that beat their own projections but fall short of the lofty projections some analysts have conjured up, the stock will temporarily decline and a month from now that decline will be seen as an insignificant blip.
I've been betting on Apple consistently since 2003 and been quite pleased. Jobs pretty much spelled out what he intended to do years ago when he did a presentation positioning the Mac as a hub for a digital lifestyle. When the iPod was brought in, many thought that it was just a case of Apple having a successful product but one that would lose its popularity when something better came along. Instead, the iPod was basically the first step in a very clever plan to promote the digital lifestyle Jobs talked about a few years back. While the competition has foolishly planned one move at a time, Jobs was operating like a good chess player, planning out several moves in advance. The company's success has been no fluke.
I don't care what numbers Apple reports. They have a winning strategy with competition so far behind, most still haven't figured out what hit them. Maybe down the road that changes but it will take years for there to be a significant change in Apple's fortunes on account of no other company is positioned to deliver the complete solution to digital delivery and playback that Apple can. Analysts have generally been wrong about Apple because they don't tend to think in terms of the big picture. They crunch numbers quarter by quarter and assume that nothing lasts.
"Expectations are high for Apple, set to report its fourth-quarter results Monday afternoon ...
Don't you mean 3rd quarter results?
Don't you mean 3rd quarter results?
Apple just started the first quarter of its fiscal year. The quarter that ended September 30th was the fourth quarter of their 2009 year. I don't know why they start on 10/1 instead of 1/1, but they do!