Sam Oliver
Beyond 2011, iSuppli upped its forecasts across the board this week. The market research firm sees Apple selling 13.8 million total units in 2010, and 63.3 million in 2012.
The forecast calls for iPad sales to accelerate as 2010 draws to a close, reaching a pace greater than 2.5 million per month. In July, iSuppli declared the iPad would be the "Tickle Me Elmo" hot toy of holiday 2010, and predicted sales this year of 12.9 million, and 2011 sales of 36.5 million.
The increased forecast came after Apple on Monday announced sales of 4.19 million iPads for its September quarter. While a larger number than the product's launch quarter, it was also less than Wall Street analysts had expected, prompting some to rethink their sales projections going forward.
But iSuppli believes that improved component availability will lead to even stronger sales in the coming months, and extending through 2012.
"In its previous iPad forecasts, iSuppli noted that the only constraint on shipment growth now is production—and not demand," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli. "The only factor limiting production is the availability of key iPad components, such as the Field Fringe Switching (FFS) LCD panels, projected capacitive touch screens and NAND flash."
"Despite ongoing yield issues, Apple's suppliers have steadily increased monthly production to meet Apple's demand. Production rates are now on target to meet the expected strong fourth-quarter sales."
The iPad will also be helped this season by expanded retail availability, including sales at AT&T and Verizon stores, Target, all U.S. Best Buy locations, and Walmart.
iSuppli also noted that interest from the education market in the iPad is increasing. The report indicated that Apple is expected to offer education discounts and packages starting in 2011, and that those offers will be similar to those currently offered on notebooks to students and teachers.
William Gallagher
Andrew Orr
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27 Comments
Are you kidding me? They are estimating that and average 11million iPads will be sold each quarter next year....
They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.
If the iPad cost $99 this estimate wouldnt be so outlandish, but I think they are near the limit of what they can do on pricing. Their margins for the past quarter were already weak by Apple standards, I dont see them dropping price by an amount sufficient to generate these astronomical sales levels. Vanishing margins is a slippery slope that Apple has been very careful to avoid thus far.
The biggest thing I feel most of the analysts are missing is next year's iPad. They are basing most of their predictions on past orders and the current iPad. As anyone who knows Apple can predict, the next iPad will improve immensely.
The biggest thing I feel most of the analysts are missing is next year's iPad. They are basing most of their predictions on past orders and the current iPad. As anyone who knows Apple can predict, the next iPad will improve immensely.
The next iPad will tell the tale of future sales predictions. I would love an iPad for a number of reasons, none of which are really addressed by the current model. I know many people who have held off waiting for a second evolution.
That being said that number might be way too bullish all things considered.
They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.
iPad and iPod are in two very different markets.
iPad is more of an entry level laptop while not being a laptop.
While the iPod's market is well developed, almost saturated, iPad's market is just beginning. LOTS of room for growth there.
I'm curious to see how Apple will handle iOS 4.2 for the iPad. Multitasking really changes the experience of using an iOS device. It doesn't look like Apple is going to roll out new hardware in November so will they have an advertising campaign for the update? Every major release of iOS for the iPhone has coincided with a hardware update so Apple haven't been in this situation before. I expect a major advertising campaign at least. That could contribute to a much bigger holiday quarter. iOS 4 on iPad could drive growth.