Josh Ong
Analyst Mark Moskowitz issued a note to clients on Thursday, noting that Apple "continues to dominate and enjoy the lion's share of the tablet market." He also suggested that a true iPad competitor may not emerge until the arrival of Windows 8 late next year.
The firm raised its 2011 tablet projection from 46.1 million to 51.9 million units, while also reducing 2012 numbers from 76.3 million to 72.4 million. Moskowitz now estimates Apple's unit market share will stand at 70.9 percent at the end of this year and 62.8 percent in 2012. He predicts worldwide tablet revenues will reach $28.9 billion dollars this year.
"Beyond the iPad, there has not been another high-volume tablet offering, yet," he said. "We are still awaiting the emergence of a clear number two player, though this may not happen until the launch of Windows 8 in 2H 2012."
Moskowitz did note that a rumored Amazon tablet could be "interesting," possibly providing a lift to the non-Apple tablet market. He went on to say that the OS would likely be a weak spot for the device, though "brand name, content and distribution capabilities of Amazon" could threaten Apple's lock on the market.
Non-iPad tablet challengers will find themselves competing on price for second place, Moskowitz suggested, predicting that the Average Selling Price in the tablet market will decline 12.1 percent in 2011 and an additional 7.2 percent in 2012. Tablet makers have been aggressively slashing prices in order to move excess inventory, with Hewlett-Packard enacting the most dramatic price cut with a $99 fire sale for its discontinued TouchPad tablet.
Earlier this year, Moskowitz warned of a coming "bubble burst" for rival tablet makers because their build plans were too high. An "early dose of reality" reportedly prompted companies to dial down production of .
However, tablet makers are expected to continue waging a fierce price war this fall in preparation for the 2011 holiday season in order "to digest inventory and minimize losses," according to one report.
The analyst also cautioned that a continued surge in tablet sales is "bad news" for PCs. J.P. Morgan believes that tablets and smartphones are not only cannibalizing PC sales, but also causing consumers to defer purchases.
Apple sold 4.69 million iPads in the first quarter of calendar 2011 and 9.25 million in the second, for a total of 13.94 million tablets.
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16 Comments
So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?
So do we pay any attention to these analysts or not?
Many people do. They are investors not apple-ophiles. So his is just information on what people are saying.
It is also a reference point. If these guys are usually off by 10% then you know what to add.
We could note that it was not until the very end of the last quarter that Apple got production up so that supply was meeting demand. My guess is that sales for this quarter will be around 12M or higher.
It was announced today that Apple APL will be working with the department of the Treasury in paying off some of the countries debt. I has been said that Steve Jobs was quoted as saying "when pigs fly". President Obama said "where?" "They can actually fly?".
We could note that it was not until the very end of the last quarter that Apple got production up so that supply was meeting demand. My guess is that sales for this quarter will be around 12M or higher.
If iPad sales are going to be over 50 million for 2011 (and everyone says that the analysts predictions are always low) and less than 14 million have been sold through the first two quarters the last two quarters will need to see average sales of nearly 20 million each. That seems like pretty astounding growth, though I would love to see it happen.
After the initial miniscule release of iPad's here in the Czech Republic in April there were none available at the retail level again until mid-August. I'm finally starting to see a noticeable amount of people using them on public transportation, mall food courts, etc. For the record, though the original Galaxy Tab was sold by all the mobile phone companies for close to a year I've never actually seen one in the wild here.