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Apple will break records in 2022 thanks to iPhone 13, analyst says

Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider

Investment bank JP Morgan expects the iPhone 13 lineup and an upcoming iPhone SE model to drive Apple to another record-breaking fiscal year in 2022.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee outlines some of his expectations for Apple's Sept. 14 "California Streaming" event. The analyst also answers some of the top questions being asked by Apple investors.

For one, Chatterjee expects few surprises from the iPhone 13 lineup. However, he believes that pricing for the new lineup is currently an unknown, and that supply constraints could potentially lead to later-than-usual shipping dates. However, Chatterjee doesn't believe that these delays will affect earnings.

"In our view, Apple has already guided to F4Q quite conservatively," Chatterjee writes. "We think can still meet its conservative guidance based on existing momentum on iPhone 12 sales, as well as momentum in Mac and iPad sales, and a normal shipping timeline towards late September will imply upside to consensus estimates."

Even though the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro marked the peak of 5G smartphone volumes, Chatterjee still believes that investors should be excited for the iPhone 13. He says a combination of the iPhone 13 and a new iPhone SE model in 2022 could lead volumes to "equal or exceed the already record year expected" for iPhone volumes in 2021.

Looking ahead, Chatterjee also notes that the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in many parts of the world could lead to a slowdown in Apple Services growth. The current 30% growth, in other words, isn't sustainable. That's despite the fact that the analyst thinks legal challenges and App Store concessions will only have a limited impact on Apple's Services revenue.

Additionally, Chatterjee believes that Apple could see better earnings growth than consensus expectations, which are modeling flat because of moderating iPhone, Mac, and iPad volumes. The analyst does not believe that Apple is over-earning in 2021, and expects operating earnings to continue to increase on a year-over-year basis.

Chatterjee maintains his $180 12-month Apple price target, which is based on a 30x price-to-earnings multiple on JP Morgan's 2022 earnings estimate of $6.12.