Sam OliverUsers on the AAPL Sanity Board at Investor Village have taken their order numbers and used them to figure out how many total preorders Apple has taken for the iPad. On Friday, the first day of availability, they determined that an estimated 51,000 units were sold in the first two hours. By the end of the day, they found that 120,000 were secured in the first 24 hours.
But according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt with Fortune Brainstorm Tech, by Saturday and Sunday those order estimates had slowed to about 1,000 per hour, suggesting demand for the device died off considerably after the first day.
Daniel Tello, who has been tracking the numbers closely, predicted that Apple will sell about 30,000 iPad preorders on weekdays, and half of that on weekends. He forecasts no more than a half-million preorders and reservations will be taken before the April 3 launch. He told Elmer-DeWitt he believes Apple will sell 1 million iPads by the second week after the device ships.
Most among the preorders tracked at Investor Village opted for the Wi-Fi-only model, coming on top by a two-to-one margin. The Wi-Fi iPad will be available April 3, while the 3G-enabled versions, which carry a $130 premium, will arrive later that month. Preorders saw a relatively even split among capacities, with the largest model, 64GB, accounting for 35 percent of orders.
Users who wish to add to the iPad sales tracking project can help by sending their order number with the last three digits X-ed out, the number of iPads ordered, order time, time zone, memory capacity and whether they purchased a 3G or Wi-Fi model to ipadsales10@gmail.com.
Despite the sharp drop-off in preorders, a half-million sales before the product ships would be an excellent start for Apple, as low-end estimates on Wall Street had forecast the iPad would sell 1 million units in its entire first year. Tello's numbers, on the other hand, would have Apple reaching that milestone in a matter of weeks.
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200 Comments
I think once people start to see them in the hands of others in trains, planes and coffee shops, this will take off.
The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.
Even if one were to bring it along in some situations, with a wealth of content stored on the unit and many programs as well, lack of 3G capability will not mean the iPad is useless beyond the range of one's router.
We all pay ridiculous amounts of money to service providers as it is. I suspect yet another monthly bill is not something many of us are that willing to take on.
You're kidding me, you expected maybe 100,000 a day all week?
All this before any of us insignificant mortals have touched one :-)
It's still gonna be at least 5M in the first year - $3 Billion + hehe
First day sales rush is most likely all the hardcore who will buy anything apple puts out, as well as all the niche customers who need a device exactly like this and trust apples quality.
I think there will be another large rush once they are in stores and people have the chance to put their hands on them. As well many people are probably holding out for the 3g model.
i ordered mine @ 9 am EST just because of what was promised. App Store apps will work on day 1. i have to assume that means apps like Ignition and Jaduu... having that huge screen will make this a perfect lazy admin tool.