Back-to-school Mac sales outpace PCs even without white MacBook, free iPod touch
Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis with NPD Group, spoke with AppleInsider this week about the back-to-school PC buying season. He said Apple's year-over-year growth seen this summer was aided by weak comparisons from sales in 2010.
"Apple grew much faster than the Windows notebook market did," he said.
Baker noted there's no evidence that this year's lesser back-to-school promotion, in which students and faculty receive a $100 App Store gift card with the purchase of a new Mac, hampered sales. In years past, education buyers were given a free 8GB iPod touch, which carried a $199 value in 2010.
"I think (this year's sale) was also kind of masked in the middle of the Lion release, and all of the upgrades they did over the summer," Baker said, referring to Apple's refreshed MacBook Air and Mac mini lineups released alongside Mac OS X 10.7 Lion in July.
Baker downplayed the loss of the white MacBook, which was discontinued in July, though it can still be purchased only by education institutions. He said the $999 entry-level pricing of the white MacBook as well as its replacement, the 11.6-inch MacBook Air, make for an attractive price point, but they just aren't big sellers.
"I think the $999 price point for Apple is just kind of a teaser," he said. "The sales of those kind of products aren't always as big as the hype might be."
Baker revealed that consumers tend to gravitate toward the $1,199 MacBook Pro, a model that he said is the best value in Apple's notebook lineup. The entry-level MacBook Pro sports a 13-inch screen and a 2.3GHz dual-core Intel Sandy Bridge processor.
"Consumers are very smart," Baker said, "and they gravitate toward the things that are the best value."
As for the rest of the PC market, Baker said Windows machines got off to a slow start in the back-to-school buying season in July. However, sales picked up by the end of the season, resulting in a better year than most industry-watchers expected.
NPD found that back-to-school sales were much better than the first half of 2011, when retail notebook sales in the U.S. declined more than 12 percent from 2010. Back-to-school sales were propelled by a late surge in sales in the last two weeks of August, when sales increased more than 8 percent from 2010.
NPD's domestic sales data directly contradicts claims made in August by analyst Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research, who said that Apple had seen a "significant" slowdown in Mac sales since the end of July. The analyst cited "various tracking data" in reporting that Apple's back-to-school promotion did not boost sales as much as expected.
Instead, NPD's data suggests Apple is on pace to sell a record 4.5 million Macs this quarter, which concludes later this month. The firm's tracking found that Mac sales were up 22 percent in the U.S. in July and August.
If Apple does achieve sales of 4.5 million Macs this quarter, it would easily top the company's previous best of 4.1 million Macs. That sum was achieved less than a year ago, in the holiday quarter of 2010.
31 Comments
"Apple grew much faster than the Windows notebook market did," he said.
Rate of growth, when compared to a "weak" time is not an impressive or particularly relevant data point. What are the actual numbers? Did Windows machines sell at the usual 20:1 ratio compared to Macs?
the 11.6-inch MacBook Air, make for an attractive price point, but they just aren't big sellers.
"Consumers are very smart," Baker said, "and they gravitate toward the things that are the best value."
I don't understand his claim that the MiniAir is not a good value, nor do I understand why the buyers of the MBA 11 are not smart consumers.
I don't think this guy deserves our ear. Mealy mouthed platitudes about sales, not backed up by any data, combines with backhanded compliments of supposedly "smart consumers" tell us very little.
I don't get it. One story says that Mac Book Airs are selling fast and people love them. This story says they aren't selling well. Which is it? How are all of these analysts collecting their data?
Rate of growth, when compared to a "weak" time is not an impressive or particularly relevant data point. What are the actual numbers? Did Windows machines sell at the usual 20:1 ratio compared to Macs?I don't understand his claim that the MiniAir is not a good value, nor do I understand why the buyers of the MBA 11 are not smart consumers.
I don't think this guy deserves our ear. Mealy mouthed platitudes about sales, not backed up by any data, combines with backhanded compliments of supposedly "smart consumers" tell us very little.
I think his overall conclusion about mac sales is correct (based on some other tell-tale signs I've seen), but I agree his throw away of MiniAir is not born out by demand profiles I've seen reported and the decisions of value tailored increasingly to light and portable, even at the expense of some performance.
bottom line- I believe the basic conclusion of effect, but not his assumption of cause
ken
(Stares at 13" Macbook Air)
Perhaps the 11" isn't selling to students more than the 13" but the Air is in fact selling pretty well. I see the latest models (meaning the new wedge shape) everywhere now.
I love mine. "This message sent from a Macbook Air"
How are all of these analysts collecting their data?
Wait, you think analysts actually collect data before they make crap up?