Long custom iMac order times don't mean that a refresh is imminent

24-inch iMac

A new report pointing out that configure-to-order iMac models have long lead times is firing up speculation that an update is imminent, but as has been the case for five years, there's no real correlation between long lead times and updates.

A report on Friday has taken a look at the availability of Apple Silicon iMacs. The report correctly points out that configure to order iMacs have about a month of lead time before delivery.

Unfortunately, the report by the normally well-informed Macotakara then immediately jumps to conclusions about it, and suggests that a New iMac with a M2 and M2 Pro processor is imminent.

While an iMac refresh before the end of the year may be happening, the conclusion drawn is a case of a maybe-correct conclusion drawn from bad data.

Apple's M1 iMac was released on May 21, 2021, so it has been some time since its introduction. To date, despite a long string of rumors about it, it has not received an M2 update, when everything else in Apple's Mac line has.

However, the inference that a configure-to-order long-lead time points to an imminent refresh is wrong. Lead times of M1 iMacs that sport custom configurations have been similar since November 2022, with lead times sometimes weeks longer than present on nine occasions in the last 11 months.

Every basic configuration is available for immediate shipment or pick-up from Apple retail. And some of the configure-to-order SKUs are available for pick-up from a local Apple Store, with how many available generally proportional to the overall sales volume of the store.

iMac has been a back-to-school computer for some time

Apple hasn't had a fall iMac release since 2014. More recent updates were in June 2017, March 2019, August 2020 for the last Intel iMacs and April 2021 for Apple Silicon. As of late, the iMac has mostly been a "back to school" computer, and not a Christmas season one.

The iMac Pro shipped in December 2017, but was previously announced at the 2017 WWDC.

The rear of the 24-inch iMac.

While Apple could launch an M2 iMac at any time and make logical sense, there are claims that it will instead skip the M2 generation entirely and be one of the earliest M3 devices.

24-inch iMac speculation has been going on for a long time

Rumors of an M2 24-inch iMac go back to February 2022, with speculation that Apple was going to launch a M2 model to match the rest of the range. Over 18 months later, that prediction has failed to come true.

A mere two months later, the rumor shifted to assume that a M3 iMac was on the way. That, obviously, also hasn't happened.

The rumor mill at this point has mostly coalesced around the prediction that M3 processors aren't coming until early 2024.

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25 Comments

PauloSeraa

said about 6 months ago

Newsflash: the iMac form factor is not attractive anymore, and that makes perfect sense. The iMac rose to popularity during an era where the alternative for a desktop computer was hideous, and despite the iMac's success, the competition remain hideous for a long, long time. Over 25 years it created some life-long iMac users. But here is the truth about iMac today: it's not portable, it's not upgradable and it's not reusable. The display on the iMac will outlast the PC inside it by several years. Heck, the 2014 5K iMac has a better display on it than most people are using on their desk today, and yet that machine is already obsolete. And because they are impossible to sell or trade in due to bulk and weight, these things become useless paperweights after a relatively short amount of time. Compare this to a Mac Mini or Mac Studio + a Studio display experience. The Studio display creates the same elegant look on the desk, and the small desktops take a up a minimal amount of space and can even be hidden inside/under a desk. The main selling point of the iMac becomes less attractive as a result. And now, you can upgrade the mini/studio several times while keeping the same display, which will surely outlast the computer in terms of usability over time.

The proof is in the sales. Apple hasn't even seen it worth their time to upgrade it to an M2 to keep it current, with M3 already on the horizon. Undoubtedly Apple is warring with itself right now over discontinuing its once-critical iMac, or spending money to update a Mac that doesn't sell.

appleinsideruser

said about 6 months ago

Heck, my first gen 27” 5k 32G iMac still has a beautiful screen. And with continuity camera, I even look quite good on calls.

baconstang

said about 6 months ago

I still use my 2007 iMac 24" for my music system, especially since it has an optical drive and and IR remote. My late 2015 5K was pretty much maxed out and works fine even while pushing an extra 4K screen...

chasm

said about 6 months ago

I think PauloSeraa makes a compelling case, but I do still think there is a place for the iMac in the market — it’s just not the consumer market anymore, for the reasons he outlined.

Instead, it should be repositioned as a workstation computer. Yes, that means it would perhaps have to lose the colour options, but beefed up with an M3 and maybe a 25-27” screen it would make for a very attractive corporate workstation (which tend to get swapped out every 3-5 years for depreciation reasons anyway).

It could be called the WorkMac or something — and maybe Apple could reinvent the iMac yet again.

9secondkox2

said about 6 months ago

I don’t know that Macotakara has it wrong. It seems that, though they only give one part of their thinking, that snowballs into some fairly obvious conclusions.

Longer lead times now are due to a number of things:

1) labor prioritization.

2) parts availability.

3) custom silicon manufacturing.

All three items seem to indicate a shift is in play. Labor prioritization is focused elsewhere because the old iMac “doesn’t matter” that much anymore in the product scheme, parts availability is an issue because Apple has shifted to newer parts, and m1 has been almost entirely replaced my m2 for some time now, soon to be replaced again by m3. Spinning up the fabs to add RAM amounts, etc. gets a bit trickier with such small numbers for such an old product.

Whether m2 or m3, it does seem logical and likely that Apple updates the iMac to a newer SOC anywhere from now through February.

What has been puzzling is why Apple would choose to wait so long to update the iMac to m2 when they’ve clearly had the opportunity and inventory for so long. If anything, the part macotakara has wrong just may be a move to m3 instead of m2. The only other strategy I can see Apple using for delaying an iMac 24 update is to sell more Studio displays alongside updated Mac mini’s. That’s a strong possibility since Apple has forgone a large iMac entirely in order to sell Mac studios and studio displays as a combination at higher rates.

In that case, an m2 iMac soft release is the easiest, lazirest, and “cheapest way apple could offer something “fresh” this fall via press release. Either way, mactakara likely has it right, regardless of limited insight into their thinking.