Apple Mac sales could surge post transition, Needham says
Apple Computer effectively dodged the Intel transition bullet in its second fiscal quarter of this year and its progress in the personal computer market could lead to a sharp rise in Mac sales once the transition has completed, analyst for Needham & Co said this week.
"Our initial survey of college students indicated a material percentage of Windows users would purchase a Mac if it could run Windows applications natively," he said. "However, the higher education market is one of the Macâs strongholds."
As a result, the analyst believes the switch rate among the entire population of Windows users in the home and education markets could be lower. Wolf said, "We are preparing a second survey that targets this audience. Whatâs noteworthy, however, is that the switch rate could be far lower among this group and still generate significant market share gains for Apple."
Echoing the sentiments of the Mac web, the analyst said he expect Apple to introduce a new iBook (MacBook) with an Intel processor in time for the K-12 school-buying season, which begins in June. "Without the new model, the season could be quite short," he wrote. "Peter Oppenheimer, Appleâs CFO, effectively signaled the introduction of this model on the companyâs conference call in his gross margin guidance."
Oppenheimer modeled down gross margin about 1.5 percent from March, largely attributing the change to the beginning of the K-12 buying season — also the first full quarter where its lower iPod selling prices on the shuffle and 1GB nano will be in full effect.
In his note to clients, Wolf also said that the MacBook Pro and forthcoming PowerMac "could experience postponements" that extend into 2007 due to a lack of Intel-native software such as Adobe Photoshop and the entire Creative Suite. "Appleâs professional audiences, which are heavy users of these products, are likely to postpone their upgrades until they arrive," he wrote.
Nevertheless, Needham & Co. is very optimistic about Apple's future and raised its fiscal 2006 earnings per share estimate from $2.04 to $2.05 and its 2007 estimate from $2.49 to $2.58.
The firm maintains a Hold rating on Apple shares without a set price target.
19 Comments
Leopard could be the real take-off. Especially once all Mac models will be Intel by then. And maybe even, at last, Universal CS3.
If I were heavily dependant on Adobe's CS2 right now, I'd pick up some PowerMac G5's for my office.
Exciting times for apple to say the least! 2006 will be a transition year, and a big year too! However 2007 should blow the competition out of the water! New, PowerMac's with intel. MacBook's. New iPod's, maybe touchscreen, maybe iPhone. Newly designed White & black shuffles. Leopard. Adobe. This will rock! Also intel is ahead of schedule for their next generation of chips. This does rock!! Woohhooooo!!!
I don't understand why all these analyst reports are on here.......but I agree that Apple is nice....at least to me.....yay!
My experiences have taught me that most normal people do not care what operating system they are using, and they will even use what they are told to use by others.
Only power users care enough to learn what makes one OS better than another.
Most people even complain when thier computers need upgrades because they need to acclimate to their new computer. They never learned Windows or its applications; there is no chance they will ever want to "learn" Mac.
This generation wants thier programs to run within a web browser (Google, Windows Live) because that is all they care to understand. This lack of confusion for them makes them more efficient workers.
And f I dare suggest anyone leave thier cocoon of comfort to embrace a Mac
I know that it won't make a difference to anyone but me.There was a day when i thought that the younger generations would go further with this than us but that day is gone. Kids are lazy, too.
Lower cost and less maintenace than PC's, ok. That's true but
I think what needs to happen is that people need to get to the point where they feel that they are entitled to be compatible with everything and that only a Mac can do that. That way you always know that you recommended to right computer to them. I'm just not sure who will support them just yet since Apple doesnt support Windows, and because nearly every IT person I meet does not want to use any more software than they absolutely have to and that includes entire operating systems. My poor father got trapped in the Dashboard the other day, that might be were some of this is coming from.
I also think that Apple knows all of this, and that they will therefore use a multi-pronged effort to reshape the entire IT industry to support Macs so that the rest of the dumb world will fall into line. I guess.