Despite inferiority, Zune likely to see modest success - analyst
Although Microsoft Corp's forthcoming Zune digital media player is somewhat bulky and lacking appeal, its likely to see "some modest success" due to Microsoft's vast resources and the company's willingness to take a loss with each unit it sells, one Wall Street analyst says.
Wu believes Microsoft inability to price Zune even lower demonstrates Apple's under-appreciated supply chain strength. With its current pricing, the analyst estimates Microsoft will suffer an approximate $50 loss with each sale of the player. This compares to Apple's industry-leading iPod profitability, which, according to his estimates, falls along the lines of 18 to 22 percent gross margin and 8 to 11 percent operating margin.
"To us, the key question is whether Zune priced in-line with a video Pod will take share with its bulkier form factor, same Windows software currently available from 15-20 vendors, and inferior battery life," Wu wrote. "Regardless, we believe Zune will likely see some modest success due to Microsoft's vast resources, but at the expense of its Windows "partners" (particularly ones that sell HDD-based players including Sony, Creative, iRiver, Samsung, Archos, and Toshiba)."
He said Apple retains key competitive advantages that include its strong brand, vertically integrated iPod+iTunes model, its proprietary clickwheel technology, and "unique and pleasant customer experience with its Apple stores."
Wu maintains a "Buy" rating and $91 price target on Apple shares and continues to recommend that investors buy on weakness.
42 Comments
Holy bologna!
Competition is good but I can see this player doing well. Microsoft has a good market position - however it does seem likely this will take consumers away from iPod competitors. The similar form factor will be attractive to some iPod fans but other than that there's no reason this player is better than any iPod competitor.
$50 loss on each player? Wow, that's pretty huge considering they likely won't make it back on sales of songs.
MS has a good market position for OS and software. How does that help them with an mp3 player?
Wait? Apple's pricing the iPod aggressively? I thought I just read last week that they were priced for profit and not for marketshare?
Please note, the above is what is known as sarcasm. Please use the Mac OS X dictionary to look that up if you are uncertain of its meaning. I am fine with the price of the iPod, of course less money would be better, but I certainly don't feel ripped off by what I paid (which was more than the current prices), nor does my wife or the dozens of other people I know with iPods.
So wait... "losing money" = "success"?
Wow, the world of business is sure changing.