Katie MarsalIn a research note to investors, analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC estimates that either a secondary, entry iPhone model or an unusually low price for the near-certain 3G model could accelerate Apple's sales growth between 50 to 100 percent — enough to boost the financial institution's earlier forecasts of 14 million units in calendar 2008 to between 20 and 25 million, doubling again in 2009 to as many as 40 to 50 million phones.
Such a climb could lead to between $2.7 billion and $5.4 billion in extra revenue for Apple over its fiscal 2009, Abramsky says.
In exchange, however, Apple also presents a short-term risk to investors, particularly if the Cupertino, Calif.-based company doesn't release expected products or disappoints its audience with high pricing or a lengthy delay between announcements and actual ship dates.
These concerns are softened by Apple's skill at maintaining demand, according to the analyst. North American demand for a new iPhone is particularly high, with roughly 70 percent of those in an RBC poll who are interested in the device describing themselves as potential first-time buyers rather than existing users.
Apple chief Steve Jobs is also expected to play a significant role by himself: rather than simply announce an updated iPhone, the company co-founder is predicted to fully flesh out iPhone 2.0's new features in his WWDC keynote speech, which Abramsky speculates could include video chat, GPS navigation, and browsing enhancements made possible through the faster 3G Internet connection of the touchscreen device.
The combined attention should also contribute to Mac marketshare outside of North America, the analyst says, as additional iPhone demand should further aid the "halo effect" created by exposure to Apple's lineup.
Christine McKee
Wesley Hilliard
Thomas Sibilly
Marko Zivkovic
Andrew O'Hara
Amber Neely
William Gallagher
33 Comments
I really must look for a job in which I can state the obvious and get paid for it.
Now Spam, what did I tell you? You remember when I said 27M? I wasn't actually joking!
Here's how it works: release a premium product with a premium price tag so that its fixed in the mind of the consumer that's its premium. Later lower the price and release cheaper versions, while maintaining a premium version.
Also, someone should hit AI with a clue stick. They state things that a certain and 'near certain' and things that will never happen as 'certain'. The 3G phone has been confirmed by the fact that Japan is getting it, they only do 3G. Likewise, no Atom processor in Apple's handheld products.
Here's how it works:... They state things that a certain and 'near certain' and things that will never happen as 'certain'.
Here is how it works: My brain slows down Friday in the PM and I can't make sense of what I read...
Now Spam, what did I tell you? You remember when I said 27M? I wasn't actually joking!
I look forward to the market being disappointed at whatever the news is, the stock dropping like a rock, and everyone buying more AAPL when it does... and of course we'll all buy whatever Steve tells us to buy.