A report suggests iPhone 17 demand, an extra-large upgrade cycle, and a range of significant new models through 2027 will see Apple crowned top smartphone maker through 2029, passing Samsung.

Apple hasn't been the number one smartphone maker since 2011. The position has been held primarily by Samsung in that time, but a combination of factors will soon see Apple retake that position.

According to a Counterpoint Research report seen by Bloomberg, iPhone 17 demand will help drive iPhone shipments up 10% in 2025, compared to 4.6% growth for Samsung. The overall market will grow by 3.3%, leaving Apple at a projected 19.4% market share.

It seems demand from the United States and China are the primary factors here, aided by a significant portion of buyers being ready for an upgrade after making purchases during the COVID pandemic. Also, Counterpoint noted that 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, which could lead to more upgrades "in the coming years."

As Bloomberg has reported repeatedly, Apple is expected to have an exciting couple of years for iPhone, at least through 2027. The iPhone Fold and iPhone 17e in 2026 and a 20th anniversary iPhone in 2027 will only help drive sales further.

All of these metrics suggest Apple could hold onto its top spot through 2029, at least according to Counterpoint.

Install base versus sales

Of course, these numbers only apply to the sales figures, not the install base. While Apple will be able to hold the crown on selling the most smartphones of any company for the given year, it is still the smaller entity given its install base.

The Android install base globally is estimated somewhere north of 70%, while in select markets, like the US, Apple holds a lead nearing 60%. Apple's growth in sales will aid its install base, but there's little chance it'll ever overtake Android in its entirety — there are just too many less expensive options globally.

A different report from Counterpoint Research showed that 79% of smartphones sold through most of 2025 ran Android. It is a testament to just how many smartphone manufacturers rely on Android globally, while there's only one Apple and one product line that runs iOS.

Apple's iOS install base being in second place while its annual sales being in first sorted by smartphone maker plays to its advantage. As long as it isn't the dominant platform, it can push back against antitrust allegations and calls for some regulatory measures.