Investment bank Raymond James restarted Apple coverage on Friday, saying Apple's valuation leaves little room for near-term upside.
Analyst coverage from firms like Raymond James can influence how institutional investors frame Apple's growth outlook and risk. The note focuses on whether upcoming iPhone cycles and services growth are enough to justify Apple's premium pricing.
Raymond James says Apple remains financially strong, but believes expectations for the future are already priced in.
Valuation and earnings outlook
Apple ended 2025 at $271.86 per share, putting its market value near $4.06 trillion. Raymond James says investors are already paying a premium, with the stock trading at about 31 times projected 2027 earnings, above Apple's recent average.
Raymond James didn't set a price target with the rating, saying the current share price already reflects its outlook.
Apple's total enterprise value, including debt, is near $4.12 trillion. Analysts believe the price already reflects strong margins, steady cash flow, and Apple's large scale, limiting upside surprises.
iPhone growth, services, and risks
Raymond James expects Apple to earn $8.19 per share in fiscal 2026 and $9.13 in 2027. Revenue is projected to rise from about $450.8 billion in 2026 to $480.4 billion in 2027.
The firm highlights the iPhone 17 refresh cycle as a major factor in recent share performance. Raymond James estimates iPhone revenue will reach about $217 billion in 2025.
Shipments of iPhones are expected to rise about 4% year over year in 2025 to roughly 238 million units, driven by the iPhone 17 refresh.
Apple's installed base is estimated at about 2.4 billion active devices, which supports predictable upgrades but makes faster growth harder to sustain. Raymond James expects iPhone unit growth to slow to about 3% in both 2026 and 2027.
Raymond James projects iPhone unit growth of about 3% in 2026 and 2027.
Services are expected to account for roughly 26% of fiscal 2025 revenue, with modeled growth of about 13% annually through 2027. Even so, Raymond James says Apple's overall performance remains closely tied to hardware cycles.
The firm warns that President Trump's tariffs could cut December-quarter revenue by about $1.4 billion, a risk Apple has already acknowledged. Raymond James also points to Apple's reliance on China for iPhone assembly.
While production in India is growing, China remains crucial for early launch volumes and high-end models.
Those risks arrive as Apple pushes deeper into a refresh cycle that already assumes steady, not accelerating, demand. Raymond James argues future outperformance depends more on margin resilience than new features.
