Duelling analysts offer differing takes on Mac in the PC market

Some analysts say that Apple is continuing to see success in the PC market with growth in market share in sequential quarters, while others point to a continued worsening for the market as a whole.

The PC market has undergone a second quarter in a row of sequential increased shipments, a note from JP Morgan seen by AppleInsider reads, complete with better-than-seasonal growth. With the addition of a leaner PC inventory, it is thought that confidence in the market is improving, and will continue to the end of 2023 and beyond.

JP Morgan's analysis is based on data released by IDC on Monday, but one that instead is more negative in tone, claiming there to be a further decline in PC shipments in the third quarter.

JPM latches onto sequential growth in PC shipments for Q3 2023, which is apparently tracking above seasonality for the second sequential quarter. Shipments rose 11% quarter-to-quarter in Q3 2023 relative to the usual Q2 to Q3 increase of 10%.

Apple is benefiting from the changes, and is doing so on a sequential basis, JPM continues. Apple saw its market share go from 8.6% in Q2 2023 to 10.6%, with Asus and Lenovo both improving as well.

IDC, which JPM uses for its analysis, offers a more dour viewpoint of the market including the claim that global volumes declined in Q3 2023 by 7.6% year-on-year to 68.2 million PCs.

IDC worldwide PC shipment tracker for Q3 2023

IDC adds that the market has slowed the rate of decline in the last two quarters, despite demand and a subdued economy. The slowing rate of annual decline indicates the market "has moved past the bottom of the trough," the note reads.

According to IDC's figures, which also include year-on-year data, Apple went from 9.4 million shipments in Q3 2022 to 7.2 million in Q3 2023. Its market share in Q2 2022 was 12.7%, says IDC, which makes the Q3 2023 figures a 23.1% reduction.

It is reasoned that Apple's decline was the "result of unfavorable year-over-year comparisons as the company recovered from a COVID-related halt in production" during Q3 2022.

IDC previously proposed Apple could be a big winner in 2024 as the market returns to growth, with a 3.7% shipment growth for the market forecast for the entirety of 2024.