Apple's Q1 2026 forecast has warned that Macs will see a tough compare year-over-year to end the year since just about the entire consumer and prosumer Mac lines were updated in time for the 2024 holiday quarter, versus one model refresh before for 2025.
Rewind to October 2024, and Apple has just revealed the M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max to be used in all models of MacBook Pro. It was a surprise to see all the chipsets at once, and that bundle of hardware sold well through the holiday quarter.
According to SVP Kevan Parekh during Apple's quarterly earnings call, Apple expects the upcoming Q1 2026 to be a tough compare for Mac. That's simply due to Apple releasing only one updated Mac in the fall — the MacBook Pro with M5.
This also hints that Apple has no plans for more Mac releases through the end of the year. There was always a chance Mac mini or iMac could get an update in November, but this forward statement eliminates that possibility.
Mac quarterly revenue, as of Q4 2025
Apple is expected to release the M5 Pro and M5 Max for the remaining MacBook Pro line in the spring. It'll also likely reveal the M5-equipped MacBook Air.
So, while the Q1 2026 earnings will see a tough compare, the Q2 earnings should see strong growth for the Mac. Expect us to be back again in January 2027 explaining why Q2 2027 will see a tough compare, yet again.
Investors love year-over-year comparisons, but it's not an ideal metric for products that don't release annually. And since Apple doesn't release sales numbers for individual products, it's the only way analysts can get an idea about how a product performs.
