AppleInsider Staff
Traditional notebook PCs are expected to be outsold by tablets three-to-one within the next three years, less than a decade after Apple kicked off the post-PC revolution with the iPad.
The forecast comes in a Thursday report from market research firm NPD DisplaySearch, which predicts that businesses and consumers will be snapping up more than 450 million tablets per year by 2017.
Fueling the shift, NPD expects the average selling price of tablets to fall slightly — from $311 in 2014 to $296 in 2017 — as economies of scale make display production less costly and manufacturers move to smaller tablet sizes. Traditional PC makers will be forced to follow the trend, NPD believes, leading to even more savings for consumers thanks to increased competition.
According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs."
Much of the growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets, which NPD predicts will account for more than 60 percent of mobile PC shipments by 2017. Those regions overwhelmingly prefer the tablet form factor already — traditional notebooks book just 30 percent of sales, with tablets taking the remainder.
If true, the shift would be good news for Apple. When counting tablets, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company already takes home nearly 20 percent of the mobile computing market.
Christine McKee
Andrew Orr
Charles Martin
Marko Zivkovic
Wesley Hilliard
26 Comments
But many predictions I have seen say that everyone who wants an iPad will soon have one and then Apple will be doomed. Once tablets (the iPad specifically) are perfected (very soon I suspect) how often will one have to upgrade his iPad? Apple seems to not orphan its equipment like the Windows of yore and Android of now. Android updating is not so obviously going to be a problem in sales as the Android OS you get is the OS you get to keep. Want a new Android OS; toss device to back of sock draw and purchase new. And how well do droid tablets stand the wear of time? Do they just suddenly blank out to the eternal hell that is special to droids? Or are they more like the Energiser Bunny and just keep banging away on that drum. What a complicated world predicting has become. (2nd time to post this puppy)
This development is expected. Jobs and company were visionaries to see the coming post-PC era and steer Apple towards taking full advantage of it.
I actually think that there will be a post post-PC era very soon where wearable technologies will more important than tablets or mobile phones. This is why I believe Apple may want to release an iWatch like device and Google is working on Google Glass.
It's all those mysterious "white box" tablets that no one ever sees although I did spot Big Foot with one. Prediction the future in tech is a fool's errand.
[quote name="AppleInsider" url="/t/161927/tablets-expected-to-make-up-75-of-the-mobile-computing-market-by-2017#post_2468540"] According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs." [/quote] I remember in January 2010, when Steve Jobs announced the iPad. Two things happened: (1) people snickered at the name, and (2) haters were saying nobody was buying tablets and that the iPad would be "Steve's Newton". VINDICATION OF A VISIONARY.
And shortly after, Apple will discontinue the laptop as a concept. Just like I’ve been saying for years.