Neil Hughes
The iPad Air may be the only model in Apple's tablet lineup to receive a refresh this year, with an allegedly still-in-development 12.9-inch model unlikely to launch, and even a successor to the iPad mini with Retina display in doubt, according to one well-connected insider.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities issued a report Saturday evening obtained by AppleInsider, in which he predicted that overall iPad shipments will actually decline this year. That's because he expects that the iPad Air will be the only iPad model to see a refresh in 2014, gaining a next-generation A8 processor and Touch ID fingerprint sensor late in the third quarter of the year.
According to Kuo, development of the next iPad Air and a new 12.9-inch iPad will be the main focus for Apple in the tablet market this year. As such, progress on a new iPad mini will be affected, he believes.
As a result, Kuo said that the chances of a new iPad mini model in the second half of 2014 are "slim." He also doesn't expect that development on a new, larger 12.9-inch mode, sometimes referred to as an "iPad Pro," will be completed in time for a launch this year, leaving just an iPad Air with A8 CPU and Touch ID as the company's refreshed tablet.
Regarding the rumored 12.9-inch iPad, Kuo said he expects it to be a growth driver for the company, and will require a revised operating system to take advantage of the larger display. Apple's current iPad lineup tops out with a 9.7-inch screen on the iPad Air.
According to Kuo, Apple has placed its priorities on finishing the operating system for its anticipated "iWatch," which he says will launch this year. As a result, he doesn't expect that Apple will be able to finish the software for a larger "iPad Pro" by the end of 2014.
"Even if it (a larger iPad) does make an appearance this year, shipments will be low," he wrote.
Kuo has a strong track record with respect to predicting Apple's future product plans, having correctly predicted most of the company's 2013 product releases months before anyone else. He also revealed the company's entire fall 2012 lineup a year prior.
He predicts that total iPad shipments will fall from 34 million units in the first half of 2013 to below 30 million units in the first half of 2014. Without a new iPad mini or 12.9-inch iPad, he predicts that iPad shipments will decline this year, "unless more aggressive promotions are launched."
His forecast calls for iPad Air shipments to drop between 30 and 40 percent sequentially in the first quarter of calendar 2014, which runs through the end of March, which he referred to as a "slow season."
Kuo also claims that shipments of the new iPad mini with Retina display have been "weak" since that product debuted in the fourth quarter of calendar 2013. Apple's second-generation iPad mini is said to not have seen as strong of a debut as the first-generation model, which launched in late 2012 and was Apple's first tablet with a 7.9-inch display.
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Wesley Hilliard
AppleInsider Staff
Andrew Orr
Amber Neely
William Gallagher
75 Comments
What a steaming pile of crap! Even if the Mini doesn't get a complete redesign it would likely get bumped. Even if that bump is Touch ID and nothing else. Touch ID is a huge initiative for Apple, as such they will want to spread it across all hardware as soon as production capacity allows. Frankly Touch ID is a better fit for the Mini than the Air or Pro. Beyond that --- duh, a larger screen will require OS updates. This guy must think the rest of the world is composed of idiots. Apple has been working towards a more flexible OS for different sized displays for years now, they have this under control. The ore thing is this, Apple hasn't been sleeping through the winter like a bear. If there is an iPad Pro it likely has been in development for years now. If we are hearing rumors I can't see it being that far off.
QUICK. BACKTRACK AND SHORT AAPL.
The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline? I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer. Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales. Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline? I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer. Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales. Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline? I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer. Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales. Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!