Analysts at JP Morgan have increased the Apple stock price target to $315 because it has high expectations for iPhone 18 demand, and at the same time have clarified how strong it thinks that iPhone revenues will be in the Q1 2026 financial results.
Apple will be revealing its first-quarter financial results for 2026 on January 29, and analysts are putting in their last-minute forecasts ahead of their release. In the case of JP Morgan, it's also changing its expectations for Apple's share value.
In Monday's note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan has adjusted its one-year share price target to $315. It was last raised in October 2025, when it had shifted from $290 to $305.
The note explains that the rise is driven by "higher earnings power" as well as an increased target multiple. Current trades are at a multiple of 30x, which JP Morgan says is below the previous 32x peak when Apple introduced 5G smartphones.
There are also expectations for 2026 to be a "key product cycle," which should result in even higher earnings next year. JP Morgan cites expectations of a more robust iPhone 18 product cycle.
Q1 2026 expectations
The note also discusses the closer-term Q1 2026 results, and it's equally complementary about Apple's figures.
The forecast for overall revenue in the quarter is $139.8 billion, higher than a consensus of $138.4 billion. iPhone is anticipated to reach $80.2 billion, representing 16% year-over-year growth versus the previous quarter.
Services will still see growth, but it will be "softer" than expected. JP Morgan foresees $29.9 billion for Services revenue, versus a consensus of $30.0 billion.
Gross margins are anticipated to track in line with the midpoint guide, at about 47.6% against the guide of 47% to 48%. However, operating expenses are expected to be below consensus and guidance ranges, at $17.5 billion versus the $18.1 billion to $18.5 billion guidance.
This is apparently due to a probable difference in timing for a ramp in fees to access to LLM models. JP Morgan refers to deals such as the one made with Google, allowing Apple to lean on Gemini's model to produce the long-awaited Siri overhaul.
Like other analysts, JP Morgan considers the specter of memory price rises not to be a massive problem for Apple. There are limited margin pressures at play due to long-term supply and pricing contracts, as well as economies of scale benefits.
For Q2 2026, JP Morgan expects the guidance to be 10% to 12% year-over-year growth to $106.2 billion, thanks to strong iPhone 17 demand. Services is also expected to break the $30 billion barrier, while gross margins will be robust at 48%.
