Andrew Orr
Wait times for the iPhone 14 Pro models are reaching extreme levels two months after launch, and the lower-end models aren't making up for demand.
In a note to investors from UBS investment bank seen by AppleInsider, analyst David Vogt found that wait times for iPhone 14 Pro models have increased once again. Using data that tracks iPhone availability across 30 countries, UBS says that wait times across most markets, including the US, have reached around 34 days.
The number is up from seven days in early November and 19 days in late October. In China, times are now 36 days, up ten days from early November.
With consumers waiting so long to receive an iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 14 Pro Max, UBS had expected people to purchase one of the lower-end iPhone 14 models instead. However, that isn't the case, and Vogt called wait times for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus "immaterial."
Shoppers can effectively walk into an Apple Store or carrier store or order online and receive a base model iPhone 14 or iPhone 14 Plus with virtually no wait time.
There is some risk
Although it's good that Apple's smartphones are so popular, UBS believes there is some risk to the company if it can't meet demand during the critical holiday season. iPhone units could miss consensus if wait times do not improve over the coming weeks.
As a result, iPhone revenue could come in flat year-over-year compared to the consensus of around 2% growth and almost 10% reported iPhone revenue growth in the September quarter.
UBS forecasts iPhone shipments to reach 83 million units for the December quarter, slightly lower than the 86 million unit forecast it predicted earlier in November.
The investment bank has lowered its price target for AAPL to $180, down from $185 in its last report. The target is approximate 25x its calendar year 2022 earnings-per-share of $6.58.
At 25x, Apple would be trading at one multiple-turn discount to its one and three-year trailing average and down from over 30x earlier in 2022.
Christine McKee
Stephen Silver
Charles Martin
Amber Neely
6 Comments
Is this reduced overall production due to various shortages in the industry, or is this really high demand? Or did Apple simply not realize this and have too many 14 and 14 Plus and not enough Pro?
Most want the high end iPhone and not the cheaper one…..
Wasn't it just a month ago or so that analysts say the demand was lackluster. And now, we obviously see that the demand is much higher and have unusually long wait times.