JP Morgan shares insight on recent Apple business developments

Apple has a lot of balls in the air as it juggles regulation, product development, new financial sector services, and global supply chain diversification. Many decisions being made today will have ramifications for Apple for years to come.

In a note seen by AppleInsider from JP Morgan, the investment firm shared its views on recent developments at Apple. Topics covered by the note include Apple Pay Later , in-house modem development, supply chain diversification, EU regulation, and the $1 billion Germany expansion.

Apple Pay Later won't provide material revenue in the near term, says the note. The payments market is a marathon, not a sprint, and Apple is expected to have a low single-digit market share by 2025 — or approximately 200 million in revenue.

The iPhone could have an in-house modem by 2024, but it would appear first in a new iPhone SE, not a flagship iPhone. This signals Apple is taking a more conservative approach with the rollout while it continues to rely on Qualcomm.

JP Morgan also estimates that Apple will move 25% of its supply chain outside of China by 2025. The number is closer to 5% today, but Apple will increase its reliance on Vietnam and India going forward.

The European Commission views Apple's anti-steering policies as anti-competitive. The company will likely comply with regulations, but moderate user adoption of paying outside the App Store will likely provide limited headwinds.

The note also discussed Apple's $1 billion investment to expand its German design center. Apple Silicon's development has benefited from the Munich-based design team, so any investment there drives the future of that platform.